Long July CY straddle @ 22 due to subdued volatility (IVR of 4)

2019년 6월 20일

We are entering into a near-the-money straddle on CCY by longing the July calls and puts with a strike of $22, for a $.60 debit. The breakevens are below 21.40 and above 22.60. As a long straddle, the maximum loss occurs if the stock price S is at the strike k of $22 at maturity. Taking long positions on both of these options was very cheap because the implied volatility is incredibly subdued -- with a mere IVR of 4. The current IV30 is 11.6, compared to the historical 20 day volatility of 31.6 and rolling year volatility of 34.5.

Cypress Semiconductors has agreed on a buyout offer from German chip maker Infineon Technologies for $23.85 per share. Before this deal can be completed, however, it has to be approved by regulators from both the U.S. and China. The deal is expected to close by the end of 2019 or early 2020, but heightened trade war tensions could interfere with the deal execution and final approval procedures. Cyrpess' CEO T.J. Rodgers, stated in an interview with CNBC: “Cypress makes some fairly exotic military stuff that could give CFIUS [Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States] problems, and China, of course, is looking for ways to get even with us on the trade war thing.” Chinese approval of the merger is needed for the combined entity to trade there. Combined, they make the world’s number-one automotive chip maker, so losing the significant Chinese market would be catastrophic for either company. Cypress also has large exposure to China, like many others in the semiconductor space, so growing trade uncertainty is detrimental.

This straddle play benefits from movement away from the current price of roughly $22 -- which seems to be a likely consequence of brewing trade tensions.