CRCL Weekly Bearish Setup (Week of 2025-06-09)

📉 CRCL Weekly Bearish Setup (Week of 2025-06-09)

🔍 Ticker: CRCL
Multi-model AI consensus indicates a bearish short-term outlook for CRCL this week, driven by weak technicals, downside pressure from max pain, and poor option liquidity.

🧠 Model Summaries:
🔹 Grok/xAI
• 📉 Bearish: Price below 10EMA, negative MACD, RSI near 41
• 🧊 Support: $115.20 | Resistance: $116.34
• ⚠️ Max Pain: $100 → downside bias
• 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put (Jun 20) → PT: +50%, SL: –50%

🔹 Claude/Anthropic
• 📉 Bearish intraday: below EMAs, negative MACD, RSI ~41
• ⚠️ Max pain at $100, light OI → downside risk
• 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put @ ~$12.95 → Target 30–50%, SL: 25%

🔹 Llama/Meta
• ⚖️ Mixed: Slight short-term bearish tilt, but warns against poor liquidity
• 💸 Trade: No Trade due to spread/premium inefficiency

🔹 Gemini/Google
• 📊 Daily trend bullish, but intraday showing exhaustion
• ⚠️ Extreme spreads, no open interest
• 💸 Trade: No Trade recommended

🔹 DeepSeek
• 🚨 Strong Bearish: Breakdown of $115.20 w/ volume, negative MACD, RSI ~41
• ⚠️ Sentiment: Max pain at $100 + bid-side put action
• 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put @ $12.70 → PT: $18.90 (+50%), SL: $8.82 (–30%)
• 🔥 Confidence: 80%

✅ Market Consensus:
📉 Outlook: Bearish Bias
– Short-term momentum is weak (price < EMAs, MACD negative)
– RSI ~41 suggests downside room
– Max pain at $100 = gravity effect
– VIX falling = no panic relief for bulls
– Key Level to Watch: Breakdown below $115 = confirmation

📌 Suggested Trade Setup
🎯 Symbol: CRCL
🟢 Strike: 115 PUT
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-20
💵 Entry: $13.30 (ask)
🎯 Profit Target: $19.95 (+50%)
🛑 Stop Loss: $9.31 (–30%)
📈 Confidence: 75%
⏰ Entry Timing: At open

⚠️ Risk Watch:
• ☠️ High premium & wide bid-ask spreads = slippage risk
• ⛔ Low open interest = exit uncertainty
• 🕒 Theta decay accelerates late in the week
• 📈 Invalidated if price breaks above $116.34
• 📰 Unexpected crypto/news rallies = trend reversal risk

📊 TRADE JSON

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