My Italy death Model is following track... Not good!!

I have not changed my numbers but I removed the curve line so its easier to read... I published this on March 22nd modeling after China's Death... I know this is not very scientific... I ignored confirmed cases as I question the data accuracy, I do think the deaths is likely somewhat accurate..... tomorrow will be my first projected point and we are closing in on it quick... (see link to related)


I hope I am wrong.