Personal opinion: It's over. No second wave.

2020년 4월 29일

One of my favorite charts. Used it for BTC many times in the past.


In my previous batflu idea, I compared countries with lockdown to those without, and it seems that those that closed everything saved a few lives - ok let me rephrase, that while the total number of people dead and in financial misery will be far higher, the number of people catching & dying of covid-19 specifically is slightly lower than if there was no lockdown.

Looking at the stationary phase in various countries, it seems to confirm this.




















We can also see that lockdowns did slow the spread of the virus compare to other countries.


Charts are not great because the sample size is rather small for 1 country it's making them not smooth.
But averages, or adding several countries, are cleaner.



For confirmed cases, there's 3% deaths?

So over 30 days with 7000 more cases/ day let's say + not much difference other than that ==> 200,000 people in hospitals.
With slow to act governments (adapted to times of peace not time of war & emergency) and "we need a 5 year study on a 50 years old medecine before we can take it"
===> Around 6000 but let's say 5000 to 10000 deaths.

Sweden isn't close to Italy and much colder but let's look anyway. They had 2500 death / 10 million with no lockdown.
Italy had 27000 deaths / 60 million so 80% than Sweden. With no lockdown I estimated they'd have had something like 35000 deaths (assuming hospital wouldn't be overloaded).
Mmmm ye seems to make sense, be the right order of magnitude.

Italy Germany France the UK prob each save ~5 k lives each. The USA might have saved around 20k.
Not counting all the lives lost for other reasons of course. Then in my opinion they're all in the red.


There are 3 things we should prepare for:
- Meteor hitting earth
- Infectious diseases
- Nuclear catastrophy

And I hope the world sees that we sure are not ready.
All rich hedge fund managers have their bunker. They're good at what they do but earth is going to need more than market specialists to rebuild.


Some things stealing all the focus:
- The CO2 made up threat that does not even make sense
- Asians make more money than hispanic migrants & purple hair people have the right to be called by the right pronoun that they can change at any time with no warning

We should keep on eye on earth climate and ozone layer and oceans and humidity and magnetic field etc.
We shouldn't invent idiotic dogmas and censor real science and drag all the political focus on those idiotic dogmas. There are REAL threats out there.


There won't be a second wave. Either it dies and does not come back. Or it survives summer and wave 1 continues.
They'll be other ID. China found an ancient lost virus frozen in Tibet recently. Who knows what can happen with their wonderful quality & hygiene standards.

2020년 4월 30일

노트

It's possible the number of new cases declined because it was warm in April, as a direct and/or indirect consequence, and it's colder now so might go back up again.

I'm wondering where is extinction rebellion now? Heat melts lipids and those virus shells are made of lipids. 97% scientists agree. WHERE ARE ALL THE GRETAS TELLING US THERE IS 12 DAYS LEFT BEFORE THIS VIRUS DISAPPEARS?
They've been yelling over and over that CO2 traps heat and therefore there would be gigantic consequences - even thought experiments have shown (in a homogenous environment) CO2 absorptions of different IR lambda was tiny so tiny in practice there is no difference.

All of those pathetic speculators. If they know the future why don't they come compete with me? If they are so much smarter they can earn hundreds of billions, trillions all of them put together, and own the world, and change the world.

I am 100% certain that at least 97% scientists agree that heat melts lipids (and UV humidity and more we don't know for sure). So logically virus goes away right? Two faced hypocrites. Never let a good crisis go to waste.


This virus can last for years, but the world on lockdown can't. Hopefully either it goes away or the incompetent slow brainwashed clowns taking decisions get fired by the public.


I said there were 3 major things we need to prepare for, actually I forgot 2 (I talked about those in the past and still didn't think of them when I made my list):

- Solar storms of big power, we barely missed one in 2012 (which was the strongest in 150 years). The most recent major one was in 1859 and kncked out electric devices. I have no clue what I'm talking about but if we are entering a solar minimum we don't have to worry about this anytime soon? I can't be researching everything myself. Going to hire people at some point. But I'll force them to build their company because I don't want wageslaves :p

- Super Volcanoes. They go from massive consequences that last decades to biggest mass exctinction in history.

2020년 5월 5일

노트

There was a study on the WHO site showing that patented expensive remdesivir had a high toxicity. This means it should not be used for an illness with low death ratio.
The study mysteriously disappeared from the WHO site.

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