scenarios for the Crude Oil (CL)

Hi traders, concerning the CL I expect two possible scenarios:
1st (green arrow): If the market has sufficient green, strong volumes the market will go over 42.21.
2nd (red arrows): I think this is the most probable situation because of the last small sizes of the candles, as if the ascending behavior is losing power. So I expect a possible bumping into the 0.786 level to drop to 34.63. Your opinion interests me!