Is CADCHF set up to go LONG?
First we look at the Monthly and we see a 10 year trend connecting tops was broken in 2017 and the market has been ranging since 2014.
We are now in the middle of that range.
We see the low in Jan 2016 was surpassed in March 2020 when Covid 19 broke out, symbolically hunting out the stops and taking out the early buyers.
The weekly/daily shows us that the market created a smaller range in April 2021 and doubled the range in August.
We are now at the bottom of the range.
We can also see the market has currently retraced between the 382 and 50% of the current swing.
Price action shows a failure to make new lows.
If we take a trend-based fib extension (A-B-C-D pattern) from the low in Mar 2020 to the top of that swing Mar 2021 and back to the low in Aug we have a projected target at 0.80 - see green box.
Somewhere in this zone we can look for the long.
Do you wait for the market to dip a little more to a 1.272 or 618 ext on the daily?
Does the alignment of the 618 ext and the 50% retracement of the latest swing provide more supplementation to our perception of the market?
Do we take the long now and not wait for an extension? If so, our stop will need to be below the 618/50% and possibly the 2. Is that too big a stop?
I can't tell you exactly when to go but from our analysis I can say we are in the buy zone and we are always looking for optimal entry with a small stop.
Yes we would love the price to hit the 618 and show a buying tail but it may not get there.
All we can do is stack the odds on 'our side'.
First we look at the Monthly and we see a 10 year trend connecting tops was broken in 2017 and the market has been ranging since 2014.
We are now in the middle of that range.
We see the low in Jan 2016 was surpassed in March 2020 when Covid 19 broke out, symbolically hunting out the stops and taking out the early buyers.
The weekly/daily shows us that the market created a smaller range in April 2021 and doubled the range in August.
We are now at the bottom of the range.
We can also see the market has currently retraced between the 382 and 50% of the current swing.
Price action shows a failure to make new lows.
If we take a trend-based fib extension (A-B-C-D pattern) from the low in Mar 2020 to the top of that swing Mar 2021 and back to the low in Aug we have a projected target at 0.80 - see green box.
Somewhere in this zone we can look for the long.
Do you wait for the market to dip a little more to a 1.272 or 618 ext on the daily?
Does the alignment of the 618 ext and the 50% retracement of the latest swing provide more supplementation to our perception of the market?
Do we take the long now and not wait for an extension? If so, our stop will need to be below the 618/50% and possibly the 2. Is that too big a stop?
I can't tell you exactly when to go but from our analysis I can say we are in the buy zone and we are always looking for optimal entry with a small stop.
Yes we would love the price to hit the 618 and show a buying tail but it may not get there.
All we can do is stack the odds on 'our side'.
코멘트:
Entry extensions
Weekly chart