Second period of volatility : March 19-25

2023년 3월 19일

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The reason why I explain the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D chart first is that it is judged that the price change of coins (tokens) can be predicted to some extent if the overall money flow of the coin market is known.

(USDT chart)


(USDC chart)


(BTC.D chart)


(USDT.D chart)



If the USDT chart continues to rise while creating gaps, the coin market is expected to show an upward trend.

However, if the downtrend line is maintained on the USDC chart, the rise may be limited.

Also, at some point, there is a possibility that it will lead to a sharp decline, so it is necessary to check whether USDC turns into an upward trend.


It rose above 46.76 on the BTC.D chart.

Therefore, if the upward trend is maintained, there is a possibility that altcoins may gradually move sideways or show a downward trend, so we need to think about countermeasures.

We believe this move is likely to continue until BTC reaches around 45K.


We need to see if it can fall to around 6.21 on the USDT.D chart.

This is because the decline in USDT dominance is likely to lead to an uptrend in the coin market.


Taking the charts of USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D, BTCUSDT, BTCUSDTPERP, and BTCKRW together, the next volatility period is expected to be around March 16, around March 20-24, and around March 29-30 It's possible.

A second period of volatility began around March 20-24 (up to March 19-25).

You need to check what kind of movement will come out.

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The HA-High indicators on the 1D and 1W charts fell and rose above that, continuing the mid- to long-term upward trend from a trading perspective.

Now, all that remains is to make the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart decline as a move to continue the long-term uptrend.

We need to see where this month's candle closes and if the value of the RSI indicator (using Heikin Ashi's Close) will enter the overbought zone.

This is because if the RSI indicator enters the overbought zone and then moves out of the overbought zone, there is a high possibility that the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart will fall.

It is unlikely, but it may rise as it is and rise to 43K, where the HA-High indicator is currently located.

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(BTCUSDTPERP 1D Chart)
If it rises above the 32275.6-37243.4 section, it is likely to show a full-fledged uptrend.

Therefore, the 32275.6-37243.4 zone is an important support and resistance zone.

The S/L point of this important section is the 28951.7 point.

Therefore, if it rises above 32275.6 and then declines, it is expected to continue its upward trend only after receiving support around 28951.7 and rising.

If it holds the price above 28951.7, I would expect it to lead to an attempt to rise above 32275.6.


We are currently entering the second period of volatility.

Therefore, it is necessary to keep a close eye on the movement of the BTCUSDTPERP chart up to around March 24th (March 23-25).


If you fail to rise and fall,
1st: Around 24294.1
2nd: Around 22421.2
You need to make sure that it is supported in the vicinity of the 1st and 2nd order.

However, it is necessary to touch the vicinity of the rising trend line (3) and check whether it rises along the rising trend line.


If it goes down further after that,
1st: 21826.1-21558.1
2nd : 19411.7-20122.5
3rd: Around 17864.7
You need to make sure it is supported in the vicinity of the 1st-3rd order.




(1h chart)
The explanation of the 1h chart is about trading in a short period of time that corresponds to scalping and same-day trading among the above.

In this story, whether BTC goes up or down is not the focus.

Therefore, you should not view and interpret this content with a mid- to long-term perspective.


- Full-fledged 'LONG' position entered near 'L1'

Entry point: When support is confirmed near 'L1', 25882.9
1st: Around 27102.7
2nd : 28951.7-30000.5
Trade close: around 32275.6

However, if it falls below the 1st point and touches the HA-High indicator or touches the 5EMA on the 1D chart, it is recommended to sell some or close the trade to preserve profits.

If you touch the 2nd point, you can end the transaction when you want.

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(BTCKRW chart)

You need to climb to the 37585000-40674000 section and see if you can get support.

If not,
1st: around 35539000
2nd: around 32042000
You need to make sure that it is supported in the vicinity of the 1st and 2nd order.

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- big picture

A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K.

This is the 81K-95K range that we expect to touch in the next bull market.

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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.

** Even if you know other people's know-how, it takes a considerable period of time to make it your own.

** This is a chart created with my know-how.

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2023년 3월 20일

노트

(BTCUSD 1D chart)

The StochRSI indicator fell in the overbought zone.

Accordingly, if there is no support around 26976.15, a sharp decline is likely.

2023년 3월 21일

노트

(BTCUSDTPERP 1D chart)

The second period of volatility runs through March 25th.

Therefore, during the volatility period, it is necessary to check whether it falls near 25882.9, the uptrend line (3) or rises near 28951.7.


(BTCUSDTPER 1h chart)

- 'L1', entering a full-fledged 'LONG' position near 25882.9
1. This is the 1st sale. (near 27102.7)
2. 2nd : 28951.7-30000.5
3. End of transaction: around 32275.6

but,
1. If you touch 5EMA on the 1D chart, it is recommended to sell some or close the trade to preserve profits.

2. You can close the transaction at any time after the second sale.


Position entry that requires quick response will be created after touching 5EMA on the 1D chart.

2023년 3월 22일

노트

With USDT, it is maintaining an uptrend while continuously creating gaps.

It looks like the decline is narrowing.

Accordingly, it is judged that people all over the world want to trade in the coin market.

However, as USDC continues to gap, it is maintaining a downward trend.

Therefore, although the money that came into USDT is trying to raise the price, I think that the amount of increase is limited as the money is being withdrawn into USDC.

Therefore, if the bullish trend is not maintained, I think the possibility of a sharp decline is increasing.





The rise in BTC dominance means that funds are being concentrated towards BTC.

In order for the coin market to maintain an upward trend as a whole, the downward trend of USDT dominance must be maintained.

However, if BTC dominance maintains an upward trend, it is expected that there will be more altcoins showing sideways or downward trends as the upward trend of altcoins decreases.

This phenomenon is expected to create a strange market where only the BTC price rises.

This phenomenon is likely to continue until around 45K, so we need to think about countermeasures for altcoins.

2023년 3월 22일

노트

What we can tell from the rise of USDT is that people all over the world want fomo.

This is likely a short-term uptrend, forming a high.

If it forms a high and shows signs of falling, there is a high possibility that the selling force will increase, so I think it depends on whether there are people who really accept the quantity being sold at this time.


As the stock market gradually recovers, a lot of money will move back into the stock market.

At this time, I think the coin market is highly likely to face a sharp decline.


Therefore, it is necessary to observe how much volatility BTC will show when it shows a slight decline from the current uptrend.

That volatility will show up in the movements of altcoins.


Therefore, it is recommended to proceed with the 1st purchase of altcoins when BTC is below 29K.

The second purchase can be made when BTC rises to around 45K.

I don't think it's too late to start full-fledged buying of altcoins when they rise above 45K and maintain the price.

This is because there is a BTC halving next year.

2023년 3월 23일

노트

(BTCUSDTPERP 1h chart)

By touching 5EMA on the 1D chart, it is possible to enter a position that requires quick response.

Entering 'LONG' position: When supported near 'L2', 27293.3
1st : 28951.7-30000.5
2nd: Around 30971.3
Trade close: around 32275.6

Entering 'SHORT' position: When receiving resistance around 'S2', 26907.0
1st: Around 25882.9
End of transaction: Around 24294.1

However, if you touch the M-Signal indicators on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts, it is recommended to sell some of them or close the transaction to preserve profits.

2023년 3월 23일

노트

The point to be created by moving the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart: 27340.2 points

Therefore, when you show support near 'L2', 27304.2, you can enter a 'LONG' position that requires a quick response.