The economic climate is not great and rates are going to go higher so I don't expect this to be a definitive bottom. Bitcoin seems to be close or above a temporary bottom preparing for a bear market rally. The bounce is happening off the weekly 200MA and should touch daily 200MA close to 0.382 fib level. Weekly RSI is similar to where December 2018 hit which started our recent bull run, but this time we have QT and rate hikes so a new bull run is near impossible. At best, this will be bear market rally.
All in all, this is a risky investment because today the feds raised rates by 75 bps and expect to do the same in July if the data suggest they need to. The stock market which is closely correlated with BTC has prices in a 100 bps for today so a 75 bps caused a rally. However, July 75 bps may not be priced in. That means if we get any data that is unfavorable and suggest inflation is more persistent than fed's estimation, we are going to see a massive sell off.
The next support is at 19.7k, 2017's high.
All in all, this is a risky investment because today the feds raised rates by 75 bps and expect to do the same in July if the data suggest they need to. The stock market which is closely correlated with BTC has prices in a 100 bps for today so a 75 bps caused a rally. However, July 75 bps may not be priced in. That means if we get any data that is unfavorable and suggest inflation is more persistent than fed's estimation, we are going to see a massive sell off.
The next support is at 19.7k, 2017's high.
코멘트:
Market is following 2008 crashing pattern and Bitcoin will go down with it. Stop loss at 19600.
