Bitcoin : The perfection of all theories
Hello all, this time I will do a very details analysis about bitcoin which cover the technical analysis from price action and wave analysis. Although the price is now entering the consolidation pattern, we can still see some strength occurs in the crucial area of support in the lower time frame. However, many have doubted about this current strength whether it will be strong enough for the reversal or will this be only relief rally?
First of all, we can see from the price action structure starting from the peak of this year's bullish movement to current correction pattern. At the peak, we can see at least 2 important price pattern that indicated the possible drop and possible peak at that time. First indication was the bearish rising wedge (yellow triangle) and the second pattern was a clear Head and Shoulders pattern (It may not be proportional but it simply fulfills the essence of HnS). After this peak pattern formed, there was also a major decline which we can classify it as a correction pattern that corrects the whole major bullish rally.
Second step is to count the wave which based on my best count, the 5 waves structure go to the upside has already done at the peak of major bullish rally. The fact that there were also HnS pattern and the bearish rising wedge as the ending diagonal wave is supporting this count whatsoever. At current structure, price is forming the corrective pattern that actually no one know of where the bottom will be. What I see for this current correction structure is that the price has already formed an ABC zig zag correction but, will this be the bottom of this correction?
Based on those 2 analysis, we can easily conclude that there is the possibility that the bottom is in right now but it's not typical for Bitcoin. We must remember based on the previous 2 bullish cycle, the correction waves were complex with a complicated count before it reached the bottom. But for this current structure, the correction is too simple and we must remember that the proportional ratio comparing to the impulse wave is disproportionate (Impulse wave is 398 days while the correction is only 56 days). The bounce from major support of $30000 won't mean a thing in my opinion. This is just an action of relief rally to complete the possibility of X wave during this correction. X wave may be extended to $50000 but of course, we are still very far from the bottom.
I see the bottom will be perfectly located between $20000 - $16000 zone. Short term looks bullish, long term looks extremely bearish. This analysis will be invalidated if the price can breaks above interim swing high which is the current ATH.
First of all, we can see from the price action structure starting from the peak of this year's bullish movement to current correction pattern. At the peak, we can see at least 2 important price pattern that indicated the possible drop and possible peak at that time. First indication was the bearish rising wedge (yellow triangle) and the second pattern was a clear Head and Shoulders pattern (It may not be proportional but it simply fulfills the essence of HnS). After this peak pattern formed, there was also a major decline which we can classify it as a correction pattern that corrects the whole major bullish rally.
Second step is to count the wave which based on my best count, the 5 waves structure go to the upside has already done at the peak of major bullish rally. The fact that there were also HnS pattern and the bearish rising wedge as the ending diagonal wave is supporting this count whatsoever. At current structure, price is forming the corrective pattern that actually no one know of where the bottom will be. What I see for this current correction structure is that the price has already formed an ABC zig zag correction but, will this be the bottom of this correction?
Based on those 2 analysis, we can easily conclude that there is the possibility that the bottom is in right now but it's not typical for Bitcoin. We must remember based on the previous 2 bullish cycle, the correction waves were complex with a complicated count before it reached the bottom. But for this current structure, the correction is too simple and we must remember that the proportional ratio comparing to the impulse wave is disproportionate (Impulse wave is 398 days while the correction is only 56 days). The bounce from major support of $30000 won't mean a thing in my opinion. This is just an action of relief rally to complete the possibility of X wave during this correction. X wave may be extended to $50000 but of course, we are still very far from the bottom.
I see the bottom will be perfectly located between $20000 - $16000 zone. Short term looks bullish, long term looks extremely bearish. This analysis will be invalidated if the price can breaks above interim swing high which is the current ATH.
