Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

2023년 10월 24일

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT
The price of Bitcoin has entered the Imbalance 1W zone, where it made a strong upward break through the trendline. The sharp increase in Bitcoin's price is due to the expectations of BlackRock approving a spot Bitcoin ETF. As we have mentioned multiple times, after the rehearsal on October 16th, these expectations will be reflected in the chart.
Currently, the price of BTC is testing a significant resistance block at 35,000, which will determine its further direction. After such a strong impulse, we expect a correction for retesting the trendline and trading in the Imbalance 1W zone to fill the gaps at the horizontal volume levels. The RSI indicator is in the oversold zone, indicating the need for a correction. Then, if the price manages to overcome and consolidate above the 35,000 level, we anticipate a move towards the next major resistance block at 38,000 - 40,000.
This scenario could be invalidated if, during the local correction, the price falls below the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level and stays below the symmetric level of 28,500.


📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

On the daily logarithmic chart, the price of BTC tested the global upward trendline slightly earlier and lower than expected. Therefore, we are now anticipating retest of this trendline in the range of 38,000 to 40,000 after a local correction. If, during this retest, the price fails to consolidate itself above the trendline, we will be looking for the formation of a Bearish Wedge pattern and a global correction of the entire growth since the beginning of this year to the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels, in the range of 20,000 to 25,000. The RSI indicator has entered the extreme overbought zone, which also indicates the need for a correction.
However, news of the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could provide another powerful growth impulse. If this happens in the near future, the correction might be postponed once again.




💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions

The Fear and Greed Index is in the greed zone at 66.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 1,229 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has risen to 54.11.
Based on the analysis of significant order blocks in the order books, the demand and supply zones are situated at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 24,000 - 30,000
🔴 Supply Zone: 35,000 - 40,000

Levels for entering long positions:
32,500 - a potential retest of the trendline
30,000 - a psychological support level
28,000 - a retest of the 200-week moving average and the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level

Levels for entering short positions:
36,000-38,000 - a possible retest of the trendline on the logarithmic chart
40,000 - a psychological resistance level




📊 Fundamental analysis

The total amount of short position liquidations in the cryptocurrency market over the last 24 hours reached 400 million dollars. This rise in Bitcoin was triggered by the news that BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust has been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) under the ticker IBTC. Typically, DTCC listings are done for ETFs that are ready for approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Another fundamental factor that could contribute to further Bitcoin price growth is the potential easing of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve, with a meeting scheduled for November 1st. A new decision on changes to the Fed's interest rates is expected.

The S&P500 index, representing the largest U.S. companies, failed to break through the dynamic resistance line of EMA50 and continued its decline towards the support level of 4,200. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading sideways.

🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ October 26th, 15:30 - U.S. GDP data for the 3rd quarter.

➤ November 1st, 21:00 - A new decision on the Federal Reserve's interest rates.

➤ November 3rd, 15:30 - Unemployment rate data for October.