BTC - Neutral Situational analysis
Bearish case:
- Uncertainty in BTC adoption in El-Salvador
- Federal Government crackdown on TetherUSDT ( And Cryptocurrencies more generally)
- BitCoin mining difficulty falling more than 31% ( bullish ), but is far from its all-time high level of over 25 trillion recorded in May 2021 ( 13 trillion).
- Looming possibility of Evergrande default as bond debt is reported in the billions.
- Bitcoin $3 billion options expiry this Friday, majority to expire without value, 50,000 of the 73,700 contracts are call options, the rest are puts.
- Wyckoff market at macro view suggests a distribution and subsequent mark-down to 30k support, with possible swing or phase E.
- The rejection of the hull moving average
- The death cross
- Dead cat bounce
- Negative RSI
- Bearish divergences and swings
- A weak moving average convergence divergence.
- Economic markets are frantic with the printing of sovereign currency and sovereign bond debts, in addition, to a decrease in non-farm payroll( by around 500k to 235K in September recordings, needs to be higher in October), increase in unemployment, stagnation and global supply issues.
Bullish case:
- Bullish divergence between on-chain investor activity and price, similar to June/July as indicated by supply shock ratios.
- Evergande $83.5 million bond payment due September agreed to be paid in the "clearing house agreement", in addition to the 120 billion liquidity injection by the PBOC.
- Illiquid supply is at an all-time high.
- Liquid supply is demonstrating maturation as coins from 30k-40k are held.
- HIghly liquid supply is at a multi-year low.
- The instrument with the highest short-term level of correlation with Bitcoin is the S&P 500 @ -2% or more, in 2017, the index, along with BTC, broke out of its rising wedge, before marking up for higher highs, this pattern is apparent with both now in 2021.
- Whales aren't selling
- Micro-strategy and El-Salvador continue to "buy the dip".
- Assuming we are at fractal 3 in the market cycle, the accumulation schematic would suggest a current sprint and test on previous cycle support lines before a mark-up.
- Consumer price index lower than forecast and previous period.
- October is historically bullish, September is historically bearish ( not much grounded in this).
- The proportion of Bitcoin supply that has been held for more than half a year has been rising since July and has now exceeded 70%.
- 54% increase in miners since March lows.
- The macro trend of holding the 1.272 logarithmic fib line with a pullback which touches the line during a peak of RSI consolidation before a mark-up, as is seen in every major bull-run in 2013, 2017 and now 2021.
- BTC ETF release (maybe) in October.
- Mark cap vs BTC dominance reflects the same accumulation cycle before a bull-run in late 2018, with a bottom being found at a higher low and spring on support.
- Not good in the long run, but economic markets are frantic with the printing of sovereign currency and sovereign bond debts, in addition, to decrease in non-farm payroll( by around 500k to 235K in September recordings, needs to be higher in October), increase in unemployment, stagnation and global supply issues can see such assets as BTC being used as a hedge against inflation.
- Major volume of BTC sold off during recent dumps on BTC came from wallets that are less than 2 months old.
What this chart outlines:
The main fractal target zone is around 35500 USD level which is also the equivalent of the beginning of a wave B assuming a bearish trend, with the bottom so far being around the 39500 USD level, with the 38000 USD being the most important support level. The major 3 impulse lines and the fractals they form are rhyming currently, could see a spring from here ( see white trend path line), as this occurred even during underlying bearish sentiments which were present including China's regulatory crackdown on mining and environmental concerns, vis-a-vis the current political and economic sphere.
- Uncertainty in BTC adoption in El-Salvador
- Federal Government crackdown on TetherUSDT ( And Cryptocurrencies more generally)
- BitCoin mining difficulty falling more than 31% ( bullish ), but is far from its all-time high level of over 25 trillion recorded in May 2021 ( 13 trillion).
- Looming possibility of Evergrande default as bond debt is reported in the billions.
- Bitcoin $3 billion options expiry this Friday, majority to expire without value, 50,000 of the 73,700 contracts are call options, the rest are puts.
- Wyckoff market at macro view suggests a distribution and subsequent mark-down to 30k support, with possible swing or phase E.
- The rejection of the hull moving average
- The death cross
- Dead cat bounce
- Negative RSI
- Bearish divergences and swings
- A weak moving average convergence divergence.
- Economic markets are frantic with the printing of sovereign currency and sovereign bond debts, in addition, to a decrease in non-farm payroll( by around 500k to 235K in September recordings, needs to be higher in October), increase in unemployment, stagnation and global supply issues.
Bullish case:
- Bullish divergence between on-chain investor activity and price, similar to June/July as indicated by supply shock ratios.
- Evergande $83.5 million bond payment due September agreed to be paid in the "clearing house agreement", in addition to the 120 billion liquidity injection by the PBOC.
- Illiquid supply is at an all-time high.
- Liquid supply is demonstrating maturation as coins from 30k-40k are held.
- HIghly liquid supply is at a multi-year low.
- The instrument with the highest short-term level of correlation with Bitcoin is the S&P 500 @ -2% or more, in 2017, the index, along with BTC, broke out of its rising wedge, before marking up for higher highs, this pattern is apparent with both now in 2021.
- Whales aren't selling
- Micro-strategy and El-Salvador continue to "buy the dip".
- Assuming we are at fractal 3 in the market cycle, the accumulation schematic would suggest a current sprint and test on previous cycle support lines before a mark-up.
- Consumer price index lower than forecast and previous period.
- October is historically bullish, September is historically bearish ( not much grounded in this).
- The proportion of Bitcoin supply that has been held for more than half a year has been rising since July and has now exceeded 70%.
- 54% increase in miners since March lows.
- The macro trend of holding the 1.272 logarithmic fib line with a pullback which touches the line during a peak of RSI consolidation before a mark-up, as is seen in every major bull-run in 2013, 2017 and now 2021.
- BTC ETF release (maybe) in October.
- Mark cap vs BTC dominance reflects the same accumulation cycle before a bull-run in late 2018, with a bottom being found at a higher low and spring on support.
- Not good in the long run, but economic markets are frantic with the printing of sovereign currency and sovereign bond debts, in addition, to decrease in non-farm payroll( by around 500k to 235K in September recordings, needs to be higher in October), increase in unemployment, stagnation and global supply issues can see such assets as BTC being used as a hedge against inflation.
- Major volume of BTC sold off during recent dumps on BTC came from wallets that are less than 2 months old.
What this chart outlines:
The main fractal target zone is around 35500 USD level which is also the equivalent of the beginning of a wave B assuming a bearish trend, with the bottom so far being around the 39500 USD level, with the 38000 USD being the most important support level. The major 3 impulse lines and the fractals they form are rhyming currently, could see a spring from here ( see white trend path line), as this occurred even during underlying bearish sentiments which were present including China's regulatory crackdown on mining and environmental concerns, vis-a-vis the current political and economic sphere.
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