Wyckoff Cycle - Practical Example 📚

2023년 4월 15일

Dear TradingView community and fellow traders,
I am Richard, also known as theSignalyst.

I find the BTC weekly chart to be intriguing as it appears to be following the famous Wyckoff Cycle.

I would like to apply Richard Wyckoff's four market stages/phases to this chart for analysis as a practical example.

1️⃣ Distribution
BTC appears to have rejected the 68,000 level and is now in a distribution phase

2️⃣ MarkDown
After breaking below 56,500 back in November 2021, BTC entered the MarkDown phase and began making lower highs and lower lows.

📉 The bearish impulse movements were initially large and steep. However, starting in July 2022, the bears seem to have exhausted themselves, resulting in a flat and small impulse movement.

According to Charles Dow, this signals an early alert for a potential shift in momentum, which brings us to the Accumulation phase as per Richard Wyckoff.

3️⃣ Accumulation
BTC is currently trading within a big range between 15,500 and 25,000 in the shape of an inverse head and shoulders as it forms a minor lower low followed by a higher low.

4️⃣ MarkUp
BTC broke above the previous major high marked in gray, indicating that the bulls may finally be strong enough to take over for the first time since late 2021, thus entering the MarkUp phase.

🏹 BTC is now approaching a key resistance/supply zone. For the bulls to remain in control from a long-term perspective, we need a weekly candle close above 32,000. Alternatively, the bears may still form one last HL before BTC breaks above 32,000.

I hope you find this post useful, and I would appreciate your likes and support.

Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen first? and why?

📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.

Good luck!

All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard

2023년 4월 17일

노트

For those who asked me regarding the bearish scenario I mentioned.



BTC formed a head and shoulders pattern.

The bearish correction would start if we break below the gray neckline around 29600

Meanwhile, BTC is bullish and can still trade higher from here

2023년 4월 19일

노트

As per my last update above, we know that the bears took over from a short-term perspective, and started a correction after breaking below the gray head and shoulders neckline. Now What?

BTC is still bullish from a medium-term perspective, trading inside the rising wedge in green.



For the bulls to take over again short-term, we need a break above the red channel.

Meanwhile, if we break below the lower green trendline and 28600, we will expect the bears to remain in control for a deeper correction downward.

2023년 4월 23일

노트

As per my first update, we know that the bears took over short-term after breaking the head and shoulders neckline.

As per my second / previous update, we know that the bears remained in control as we broke below 28600


The next support/rejection would be around 26,500, if broken downward we will expect a movement till around 25,000

2023년 5월 1일

노트

As per my last update, BTC rejected the 26,500 - 27,000 support and traded higher.

After rejecting the 30,000 resistance, BTC broke back below 28,600


Hence, we are now expecting a bearish movement till the 27,000 support again where we will be looking for new short-term buy setups, UNLESS the bulls manage to break back above 29,000