Will you fade moon cycles this time around? + BTC OI/FR analysis

10월 11일

Update and small observations:
Moon cycles might be a meme, but hear me out. Last 5 full/new moons = 5/5 hit rate.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZkucK6XAAESTul?format=png&name=large
This is the data of binance futs contract, bybit looks almost the same.
OI is doing something very similar to October, grinding up. On LTF/MTF, it looks overextended, but zoomed out, it appears relatively normal. High OI is often wrongly seen as bearish signal, when in reality it means how high is involvement of participants in the market.
Funding rates: same story. They look high and bearish on LTF/MTF, but in reality, they're neutral and healthy.
PA is different than in 2023 october, but every other metric not.
in terms of fundamental analysis, only one potential catalyst on sight: elections.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GZkvqn1WsAAUvP0?format=jpg&name=large
Liquidation heatmap: can't fully rely on it since other factors matter (e.g., the amount of margin participants have to protect positions). To trigger big liquidations on longs, we'd need to go deep, like "Kole world" deep, 40k and below. But I think recent OI build-up is mostly on shorts.
Market works both ways. The same mistakes bulls made at 74k are now on the bears side.
Conclusion: We’ll break out violently from this 6+ month range soon.
Greedy bears will suffer.