Drama in Bitcoin land! But could it be not so bad after all? Perhaps.
Disclaimer: I am not an expert, this is not investment advice, it is just an idea. No I am not a perma bull, I actually thought at first we will crash super hard. This chart made me doubt this.
I decided to have a look at the 2-day chart to see if I would pick up some other signals there... I think I did.
If you look at the 200 EMA you see that it has actually been quite a solid support line. So perhaps, going lower than this will not happen. Also, I see a potential double bottom forming. I do think the right bottom is likely to have an inverted head and shoulders in it. We will have to see how it will go today, but if the candle of the last two days will keep its long shadow, there is a good chance it will go up for now.
Furthermore, the Stoch RSI is in the oversold area, which could also indicate that we should be seeing higher prices. It could also be forming a double bottom for itself there too.
Regarding the death cross on the 1-day chart, it does not have to be as bad as some people make it seem. The death cross is usually actually a very late indicator that we are in a downtrend - well duh! We noticed that. When looking at past examples the death cross (and goldcross as well) on other charts were often exaggerated as having a huge impact. Seeing it in the context of Bitcoin I think it might be not that significant as most expect. When going back to previous death crosses on the Bitcoin chart I found 2, but the period did not last longer than 1 month, and the second one was about 2 weeks before turning into a golden cross again. Next to that, as we all know, there were some really good reasons why the crash occurred at the time (cough Mt. Gox).
Nevertheless, whilst I like the scenario I am seeing on the 2 day chart - the shorter term movements should still be taken into consideration. This is of course all just an idea - and there still needs to be some movement before a double bottom structure is confirmed and more likely. If this scenario does play out, I do expect another downtrend starting from 11300 downwards.
What do you think? Likes, comments, feedback is welcome - still learning :).
Disclaimer: I am not an expert, this is not investment advice, it is just an idea. No I am not a perma bull, I actually thought at first we will crash super hard. This chart made me doubt this.
I decided to have a look at the 2-day chart to see if I would pick up some other signals there... I think I did.
If you look at the 200 EMA you see that it has actually been quite a solid support line. So perhaps, going lower than this will not happen. Also, I see a potential double bottom forming. I do think the right bottom is likely to have an inverted head and shoulders in it. We will have to see how it will go today, but if the candle of the last two days will keep its long shadow, there is a good chance it will go up for now.
Furthermore, the Stoch RSI is in the oversold area, which could also indicate that we should be seeing higher prices. It could also be forming a double bottom for itself there too.
Regarding the death cross on the 1-day chart, it does not have to be as bad as some people make it seem. The death cross is usually actually a very late indicator that we are in a downtrend - well duh! We noticed that. When looking at past examples the death cross (and goldcross as well) on other charts were often exaggerated as having a huge impact. Seeing it in the context of Bitcoin I think it might be not that significant as most expect. When going back to previous death crosses on the Bitcoin chart I found 2, but the period did not last longer than 1 month, and the second one was about 2 weeks before turning into a golden cross again. Next to that, as we all know, there were some really good reasons why the crash occurred at the time (cough Mt. Gox).
Nevertheless, whilst I like the scenario I am seeing on the 2 day chart - the shorter term movements should still be taken into consideration. This is of course all just an idea - and there still needs to be some movement before a double bottom structure is confirmed and more likely. If this scenario does play out, I do expect another downtrend starting from 11300 downwards.
What do you think? Likes, comments, feedback is welcome - still learning :).
코멘트:
** There was another death cross that lasted longer that I overlooked.
