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Will BTC take over this stubborn resistance this time!

업데이트됨

We didn't forget 2D chart last time it failed us, price didn't get candle close above 2017 uptrend channel resistance line on daily basis, only single one 2d candle close above it out of 8 candles .. this was deceptive and price started to head down to retest same channel support (previous resistance turned support) where we expected reversal twice below 9500 during last weeks ...2d hidden bullish divergence did very well we trusted it much more, 2d chart MACD cross coming.

Price just did broke out of bull flag on daily chart will it give power and steam needed this time! (check our previous idea below for detailed view)
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Please understand that we are only analysis the price movement and sharing my view with others only for education purposes, none of my ideas stand as buy/sell signals and i am long term holder,
If sharing my views help, leave a follow, give thumb up, your opinions are welcomed.
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Previous idea:

Trap: BTC below $10,000 for the last time!

BTC is out of RED zone .. $23,000 Could be a new ATH!

Original idea:

Get in the train and ignore your fear, ATH in 1-2 month

액티브 트레이드

Failing wedge + 4H hidden bullish divergence .... this could be it guys, wait for 1d,2d candle close

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1H chart showing same thing, I will never look to 1H,4H chart again if this fail.......!

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Divergence did well so far and breakout could be incoming any time, 12H chart Ichimoku is very interesting ... We just had a bullish kumo cloud breakout, we have a bullish kumo cloud twist, and tenkan-sen crossed the kijun-sen, tenkan line holding price nice and all signs look bullish.

Time to take over: 12k ... bull flag .... 2d chart 2017 uptrend stubborn resistance.
Price could head straight to 0.618 fib ext. at 14500-15000 range(IN PLAY)

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BTC: 12H Ichimoku showing interesting bullish signs! ( click to read details )

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1H,4H chart did not fail us .. divergence did very well .. price broke out failing wedge and now we got the re-test! .. we got 2d MACD cross completed ... btc entering crazy mode and a huge move could be coming!

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We showed how we had a strong bullish reasons 2 ideas 2 times below 9500 on daily chart and we got the price back up to 12k ......... 2017 uptrend channel stubborn resistance on 2d chart which it looks like price will take over it this time finally! ......... 12H Ichimoku gave us a more supportive bullish signs ......... Lower time frames screaming bullish! .... Bull-flag breakout could be triggered at any moment!

4H chart: we saw failing wedge and hidden bullish divergence which both did very well and we got the breakout followed by the retest ... RSI got 4 times lower low while price 4 times higher high which looks like this coming to an end very soon .... SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE has been formed and its imminent breakout with targets around 10100/13200 ... we say 80% UP on this one.

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This could be the last idea to share with you guys!......

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Check above idea, click on it to find out why?!

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Thanks again guys for this massive support .. excuse my language, English not the first!. Its just me .. Sometimes using (We) because (I) always heavy to use all the time!
I was distracted writing this last idea and miss described couple of things that would like to fix for transparency ....
1st:
RSI got 4 times lower low while price 4 times higher *low
Not
RSI got 4 times lower low while price 4 times higher (high)
I think we won't get RSI 5th time lower low

2nd:
SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE has been formed and its imminent breakout with targets around 10100/13200 ... we say 80% UP on this one.

This could be a bullish pennant rather than sym triangle .. we know both of them are identical but what distinguish pennant is considered a short term pattern that can form in days depend on which time frame used .. sym triangle takes longer ... 2nd thing is the flagpole , which is not present in the formation of the sym triangle. look at the following picture:
tutorials.topstockresearch.com/ChartPatterns/FlagPennant/PennantSampleImage.png

This will change our target to 15k level which match with our previous target we mentioned many times before:
Price could head straight to 0.618 fib ext. at 14500-15000 range(IN PLAY)

I will be so surprised if the price head lower from here! good luck to everyone.

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We all know 4H chart price still in develop and we are trying to spot a pattern that still in formation which could be changed
This could be a bull-flag rather than pennant .. with the same targets .

Pennant invalidated .. the breakdown is not confirmed .. I don't advise anyone to trade it ... this could be a bear trap ... better to wait and chill for more price development for better view ... I think 10900-800 is strong support that price should not break below with 4H candle close for trend continuation.

We didn't expect RSI will go more lower low but hidden bull div could still be in development OR a stronger one could be formed if the RSI and price would like to retrace more ... so we strongly believe price will not crash like others saying .. look at the picture below.

Lower 4H time frames could be tricky that's why we said before that we focus on higher timeframes .. we look to lower timeframe to spot momentum and clues.

We still have strong reasons in play to resume bullish uptrend on daily chart and lets not forget 2d chart MACD crossover we just got last 2 days as well as 2d hidden bullish divergence that effect still active. Lets watch how this will develop!

P.S check the below idea for detailed bullish reasons on higher timeframes which still ACTIVE.
BTC is out of RED zone .. $23,000 Could be a new ATH!

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This is my current view for this idea:

I can't tell you if the price will drop more but there are signs to resume uptrend!

We have seen before on 15m chart when hidden bull div followed by classic bull div that led to a bounce .... later when same pattern appeared on 4H chart we expected that will led to stronger bounce below 9500 and price jumped to 12000 ...

Now we can see same pattern in develop on 4H chart as well as 1H chart .. have a look on the following pictures:

P.S. If you click play the following idea:
BTC: 12H Ichimoku showing interesting bullish signs!

It looks like price did retest the kumo cloud after we got its breakout. Is it the time to go up?!!

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Not only 12H Ichimoku but also 12H TEMA ... This is not bullish trend EMAs ?!! Ok..maybe I am only bullish bias..............

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Current 12H Ichimoku showing the retest of kumo cloud after it broke-out!........... I could be wrong!

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This is the 3rd high peak near that resistance .. 26 jun, 10 jul and 6 august
First 2 times price has dropped 4200 within 6 days in each time
But this time, it has been 6 days since high peak and price still moving sideways near that resistance.

Isn't that Interesting?! .. This are my own views and none of them stand as financial advise. Trade at your own risk as everyone know!

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3 days ago we mentioned:
-((Pennant invalidated .. the breakdown is not confirmed .. I don't advise anyone to trade it ... this could be a bear trap ... better to wait and chill for more price development for better view ... I think 10900-800 is strong support that price should not break below with 4H candle close for trend continuation. hidden bull div could still in development OR a stronger one could be formed if the RSI and price would like to retrace more))

-So it looks like this scenario playing well so far, 10800 was a previous resistance and price retested it (horizontal purple line) .. price still moving in a bull-flag pattern and its not yet invalidated

-Another thing caught my eyes that i would like to share:
1H RSI ... this is the first time it go below 17 RSI level since price was at 5000 ... more so, this could result in huge 1h hidden bull div with previous low at 9100 as well as a giant hidden bull div with major low at 5000

-1D Ichimoku .. Showing bullish signs, We just had a bullish kumo cloud breakout, tenkan-sen crossed the kijun-sen and a bullish kumo cloud twist could be incoming?! ... A retest of daily kumo was possible that's why we also mentioned before price should not go below 10800 support area for trend continuation. More so, we had a positive daily MACD cross after long correction! lets watch how this will develop and remember anything could happen .. we only share our view that doesn't have to be correct/happen .. just keep that in mind!

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Price has retraced to 10400 !! What a move! ... really? a thousand move during an uptrend that is jumping in thousands something that is normal and we are not trying to predict exact price because simply there is no one can.

We expected 10800 support (area) to hold for reversal and trend continuation because our aim to focus on the trend and not get lost due to market manipulation! .. exchanges/whales, doing very well moving the price on short term for their favor .. maybe liquidating heavy long/short before price make a big move to the other side ... I doubt THEY CAN CHANGE THE TREND DIRECTION!

Support/resistance doesn't mean the highest/lowest peak the price will reach ... price still could go below/above for a short period of time.

Current 1H RSI is back above 17 level forming higher lows while price form lower low ... 2 classic bull div has printed on 1H chart after hidden bull div with previous low at 9100 which is also clear on 4H chart ... price also retraced to 0.618 fib ... this maybe the div pattern we were expecting last time?! ... I would like to see explosion in next days if this is the reversal point that we have been waiting for .... if the price will drop further below 10k ... This time I will be out of the market.

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The breakdown of 10500 was a clear sign that price will drop more .. price didn't bounce at all .. but as a holder who has early entries, is it the right time to get out now?! did we just lost the uptrend?

I asked my self a question: Is n't there a trend manipulation?
our aim to focus on the trend and not get lost due to market manipulation! .. exchanges/whales, doing very well moving the price on short term for their favor .. maybe liquidating heavy long/short before price make a big move to the other side ... I doubt THEY CAN CHANGE THE TREND DIRECTION!

In the past I lost a lot of money taking short term trades even when its good ones .. In Crypto market its very hard and so slow but if i still prefer to trade it then i decided its better to do it the right way which is less stress avoiding market manipulation and only focus on the trend!

Trade could takes months but i saved my self a ton of stress and losses. even when I turn to be wrong or make mistakes on short term like everyone. i will still get out with a nice ROE.

I was watching a lot of channels/services following most of professional traders and i didn't see anyone who is able to predict btc moves correctly most of times in anywhere! at the end it was my own choices/decisions!

I was not a professional trader and i am still learning .. changing my strategy in a risky market was a good choice for me. more so, stick to it and be patient ... at the end I am still on huge ROE no matter when i deiced to be out of the market ... but the question, is it right time now?!! or this is a trend manipulation ...... or there is no uptrend and this is just corrective wave up?!

It really depends on how much risk i am willing to take! it differ from one to another considering i am not willing to lose my mind because of trading!

I am ready to take the risk and be certain about my exist ... as a holder i would be mad if the price fly after my exist and i will be fine with less ROE if that didn't happen ... I am not bullish bias ... I am only trend bias and i will stick to my strategy.

I would like to clarify that i hold a good a mount of BTC since 3500 and 5000 in private wallet .. I did apply the same strategy on my BITMEX account with 20% of my capital that i used half of it at 3300 (x25) margin .. I was so calm, brave and lucky to open a massive amount of contracts with high leverage and less than 200 point a way of my entry to be liquidated. i added 25% more at 4900 and later the rest 25% at 7800 and 9500. My early entry did very well to keep my liquidation price far enough. at the moment its 6300

It was not easy to be so calm or be so patient when you are in x25 leverge or to not sell at every higher peaks .. instead of that we added more contracts after every correction! The difference from 14k ROE to now is massive but we seen that 2 times before and we treat it as just numbers not real money to avoid getting emotionally while taking serious decision about the TREND!

Now i know some will think, how i will hold such amount of positions for long period of time while maintain PNL and fees which is also play role with liquidation price. There is a nice trick for how to open contracts as a market maker ( not at market price ) that way you will get a rebate, when PREDICTED FUNDING RATE calculated periodically which differ all time since i am considered as a market maker. for Ex. my PNL was more than +1.3 btc and now its -1.1 btc ... Sometimes you can take fees not just pay fees! .. Yes

My current plan is to be patient .. to focus on 12H..1D..2D time frames at the moment ..
I have 3 scenarios in mind:
--price will start to recover and reverse from 9500
--price will retest 9100
--price will resume to drop and 9100 will be broken with a few hundreds to stop out everyone! Maybe 8800

I will RISK my exist point to be below 8700

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2D chart:
-once again price at 2017 channel support .. price could bounce from here but worst scenario is to fakeout the support the same way it did with the resistance.
-price touching 2d 50ema .. was it really needed before resuming up or will it hold the price? ..
-RSI 2D Hidden bull div confirmed with 2 previous lower low and price higher low at 5000 and 7500, so either 9100 double bottom was 3rd higher low or price will reach 8800 that will still show 3rd lower low on RSI.
-MACD also showing confirmed 2 lower low .. will we get the 3rd?
-bullish 2d Ichimoku and price still above cloud with strong support around 8800

1d chart:
-green support line on daily still holding and blue trend line could still be intact.
-the correction since 14k could be ABCDE instead of ABC
-price bounced from daily 100ema at 9500 .. I will start to doubt this is uptrend if price retrace to daily 200ema at 8200
-Ichimoku looking bad with bearish signs but this could be deceptive.
-RSI on daily matching what we said on 2d chart.

12H:
-Price retraced to 200ema and bounced from there .. this could explain the first scenario
-Ichimoku looking bad with bearish signs but this could be deceptive.
-RSI is near 30

4H:
-Either price will reverse or drop more there is still high possibility of this giant hidden bullish div on 4H with major low at 7500

1H:
-Its funny price started to jump since i started to write this post from 9500 to 10200 and its so interesting the way RSI showing how divergence did play out but i doubt this is just a bounce rather than a reverse.

>> This is my own view/plan and none of our ideas stand as financial advise OR buy/sell signals ... We are holder, we only trade the overall trend ... Trade at your own risk!!.... (you already know that)

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BTC: Isn't The Trend is Your Friend, Until it Ends?!

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1H RSI is interesting:
We saw this hidden bearish div yesterday on 1H chart forming at 10400 and its looks like its confirmed now .. the classic bullish div on 1H led to a bounce from 9500 to 10400 but i still think there is a high possibility that it could be a bounce rather than a reverse ... there is a possible descending broadening wedge formation and price should break above 10250 (hourly 100ema) for breakout otherwise it will start head down which can led to another lower low on price and higher low on RSI which could be last leg down before break out the pattern .. 5th wave could be in play?! if price drop i will be watching price action area between 9200 and 8800 .. please remember ... we only share our own personal view as a holder who has early entries! For me it will be another chance to buy more.

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4H RSI:
We had a massive hidden bearish div 13200 and 12200 tops that i totally ignored at that time although i noticed it but my bullish trend bias was challenged enough to not consider it ... now it really worth to mention since my all posts are about to learn either right/wrong .. I am glad that i am still learning while sharing!

But lets not ignore the massive hidden bullish div with previous major low at 7500 that could be in already ... either price will drop a little more or not ... that will even may led to a followed classic bull div on 4H chart and we saw that pattern before on different time frames that always led to a bounce or reverse.

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1D: Cup & Handle
Price broke out 1h descending broadening wedge and it could be heading to next resistance at 10800 of this descending channel where also hourly 200ema located. If the price able to break out of this channel in the next few days ... cup and handle target is 15000.

If 1st scenario will play out as reversal that will mean ( 2d 50ema ... 1d 100ema ... 12h 200ema )>> test at 9500 was needed before resuming uptrend!

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Daily BTC Chart: Still Show all this bullish signs..?! ( click to read )

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1H chart: show a possible bullish reversal ascending triangle that still in formation ... RSI has printed a hidden bull div after a complex classic bull div.

This will be INVALIDATED below 10000 ... the breakout above 10500 (where hourly 200ema located) will confirm the pattern targeting 11300 ... it will be also a confirmation for the breakout of descending channel (the cup handle) ... cup&handle and bull flag will be confirmed only above 12k.

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Price broke out the reversal ascending triangle as well as descending channel as expected .. hourly 200ema (around 10600) should serve as support.
Before the breakout we spotted inverse H&S on 4H RSI that was interesting .. it looks will play out, breakout occurred at RSI 50 targeting RSI 85 ... 4H hidden bull div did very well.
Now i believe we got a clear reversal signs and 9500 was reversal point (1st scenario) 10500 area should not break below to keep it valid.

The cup handle breakout (descending channel) is initial confirmation for the pattern and final confirmation will be only after 11500-12000 .. targeting 15000 area.

I had spent enough time before deciding this a cup&handle or not .. I did consider the following:
-cup depth and left side was higher than right side with a slope angle
-daily close was a hammer candlestick.
-handle usually (not always) goes to 50% ... less retrace is better bullish sign ... similar examples with more than 50% on the following links:
After all, we still said its A POSSIBLE pattern to keep a close eye on and we will get more confirmation within next days!
d1p5pyutve46t9.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Chartist-BT-475x293.jpg
forextraininggroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Bullish-Cup-with-Handle-Trading-Strategy.png
forextraininggroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Cup-with-Handle-Signal.png
tradingsetupsreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CupandHandle-355x396.png

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That was a perfect retrace to hourly 200ema as we mentioned around 10600 should serve as support. It did hold the price so far. A new hidden bull div on 1H has printed on RSI as well as a failing wedge bullish continuation pattern is in formation .. lets see if it will play out!
11300 remains short term target for the ascending triangle mentioned before.

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4H chart: show price failed to stay above 200ema after breakout of descending channel and now it retraced to test it ... hidden bearish div as well as H&S did play well to dump price again which target has been reached ... lets watch whatever coming next will be so interesting!!