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Two possible Bitcoin scenarios - long term

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Scenario 1:

Bitcoin is sitting on a long term support.
If it's gonna hold to it, then It will slowly move to uptrend cycle.

Scenario 2:
Bitcoin won't be able to hold he first support, and will fall to second (lower) one.
After finding this support, bitcoin could bounce really fast to the next one, do a re-test, and then organicly move upwards.

The curve in the spring shows us the halving era. Before halving we could se a pump, and then some retrace, and afterwords, uptrend, which will possibly continue until middle of 2021.

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