Bitcoin and the overall crypto market may enter a greater bear market due to these indications:
- BTC formed a rising wedge with declining volume from July '21 to Sept '21 and broke support to the downside on Sept 7 with high volume.
- Started to form lower highs and lower lows after it broke the 43.6k level and rejected at 48.8k (61.8% retracement level).
- Traditional stock markets are also showing signs of a larger correction. Example: S&P500 chart has been forming a bearish rising wedge since the March 2020 Covid crash, breaking bottom support on Sept 10, and has a technical downside target of approximately 3225 points (-25% from Sept 20 close). Investors and traders may go risk-off on crypto in tandem with the traditional markets.
- BTC Dominance broke out of a downward channel to the upside on Sept 17, which is a sign that alt coins will underperform vs BTC in the coming days/months and also usually means the crypto market is entering a new downtrend.
BTC Elliott Wave 3 Possible Scenarios
1) BEAR Scenario: Still in a primary/intermediate wave 4 (ABC) correction since it hasn't broken the April '21 high of 64.8k. Further Confirmation would be if we go below $38k and revisit the low $30k levels. This would be the bear market scenario with 5 waves down from the 53k local top.
2) BULL Scenario: Currently in a minor wave 2 after completing wave 1 at $52.9k. Wave 2 targets could be 35k and 38k (61.8, 78.6 fib levels). Wave 3 targets could be $68-108k.
3) BULL Scenario: Currently in a minute wave 4 if we hold the 50% fib retracement level of $41k and there might be one more leg up for wave 5 to 55-60k+ before a bigger wave 2 correction.
Crypto Market Outlook for the next couple months:
BTC may test support levels at $41k and $38k and still have a chance to re-test ~50k resistance(~78% fib retracement) for a short term dead cat bounce or resume bull market run if we break above the 64k high.
If BTC closes below $38k on the higher time frames, there's a very good chance we re-visit low 30k price levels seen in May-July '21. Note: There are CME future gaps at 33k, 25k, 19k.
- BTC formed a rising wedge with declining volume from July '21 to Sept '21 and broke support to the downside on Sept 7 with high volume.
- Started to form lower highs and lower lows after it broke the 43.6k level and rejected at 48.8k (61.8% retracement level).
- Traditional stock markets are also showing signs of a larger correction. Example: S&P500 chart has been forming a bearish rising wedge since the March 2020 Covid crash, breaking bottom support on Sept 10, and has a technical downside target of approximately 3225 points (-25% from Sept 20 close). Investors and traders may go risk-off on crypto in tandem with the traditional markets.
- BTC Dominance broke out of a downward channel to the upside on Sept 17, which is a sign that alt coins will underperform vs BTC in the coming days/months and also usually means the crypto market is entering a new downtrend.
BTC Elliott Wave 3 Possible Scenarios
1) BEAR Scenario: Still in a primary/intermediate wave 4 (ABC) correction since it hasn't broken the April '21 high of 64.8k. Further Confirmation would be if we go below $38k and revisit the low $30k levels. This would be the bear market scenario with 5 waves down from the 53k local top.
2) BULL Scenario: Currently in a minor wave 2 after completing wave 1 at $52.9k. Wave 2 targets could be 35k and 38k (61.8, 78.6 fib levels). Wave 3 targets could be $68-108k.
3) BULL Scenario: Currently in a minute wave 4 if we hold the 50% fib retracement level of $41k and there might be one more leg up for wave 5 to 55-60k+ before a bigger wave 2 correction.
Crypto Market Outlook for the next couple months:
BTC may test support levels at $41k and $38k and still have a chance to re-test ~50k resistance(~78% fib retracement) for a short term dead cat bounce or resume bull market run if we break above the 64k high.
If BTC closes below $38k on the higher time frames, there's a very good chance we re-visit low 30k price levels seen in May-July '21. Note: There are CME future gaps at 33k, 25k, 19k.