The most trustworthy indicator for predicting a Bitcoin peak is the Pi Cycle Top; if you use a forecasting model to predict where it should cross, it appears it will most likely happen around February 2022. Monthly RSI and Log Curve charts are also very reliable. These are beginning to converge in Q1 of next year.
In a broad view, this chart shows a very typical 5 wave setup where a peak in Q1 of '22 between 125k - 175k would fit perfectly. This forecast is taking into account diminishing returns and lengthening cycles, as well as the macro-economic environment (increasing inflation worries and interest rates heading into next year as tapering kicks in).
Mid-February is only 90 days away so for this thesis to remain true there can't be any large bear markets or consolidation phases left as there's not enough time. If you look at the past 2 cycles, they all have relevant corrections near the end of November before a large increase begins. We may test lower supports, but I believe it's unlikely we go lower than $50k.
In a broad view, this chart shows a very typical 5 wave setup where a peak in Q1 of '22 between 125k - 175k would fit perfectly. This forecast is taking into account diminishing returns and lengthening cycles, as well as the macro-economic environment (increasing inflation worries and interest rates heading into next year as tapering kicks in).
Mid-February is only 90 days away so for this thesis to remain true there can't be any large bear markets or consolidation phases left as there's not enough time. If you look at the past 2 cycles, they all have relevant corrections near the end of November before a large increase begins. We may test lower supports, but I believe it's unlikely we go lower than $50k.