evasivesteering 의 BITFINEX:BTCUSD 용 BTC short-term view

Hi all,

I would like to share my short-term analysis for BTC based. As seen in chart, I expect that BTC will revisit the long-term trendline, at around $23000s (or even below!). The reason is that BTC seems to form a distribution pattern following Wyckoff method.

Before reaching this low, BTC would move as follows:

Scenario A: BTC will resume its leg-down to the expected target after consolidating around the current support $27000.
Scenario B: BTC will hold this support ($27000) and go up again to $30000s before falling to the long-term trendline

I'd appreciate if you can share your thoughts in comments.

Thanks and have good trades!

코멘트:

I think that an Elliott 5-waves would make sense for the current moves of BTC. BTC would go down to retest the lower trendline of the ascending channel (wave 4) then bounce up to 29k-30k to finish the 5th wave (scenario B). However, we should prepare for scenario A as well.

코멘트:

BTC' is in the middle of the ascending channel. What I thought (test of lower trendline) the has not come yet. High volatility is expected next week with CPI, war news...

코멘트:

Finally, the retest of the support trendline is about to come:

코멘트:

BTC had almost touched the trendline. I'm still waiting for this retest for potential LONGs. Some alcoins have already forerun BTC

코멘트:

Finally BTC touched the support trendline of the channel and is breaking it. This is a critial point. My preference change: possibly Scenario A is more likely to happen. I'm waiting for the 12H candle to close to confirm it.

코멘트:

The ascending channel was broken. A retest of the broken trendline would be opportunity to reinforce your Shorts and open Shorts.
Next targets are $25000s and $23000s, respectively

코멘트:

As mentionned in the above comment, a retest of the EMA50D and the broken trendline seems to come. It'd be opportunities for new SHORTs (or reinforce opened SHORTs):

코멘트:

BTC is rising and now retesting the EMA50D. If effect of news on SEC is good, it'll retest the lower trendline of the ascending channel

코멘트:

BTC is trying to retest the broken trendline, around $27500. I'll be looking for short BTC (and some alcoins) at this moment. Please check my telegram for a synthesis of on-going trades:

매매 수동청산:

I end this analysis here because the channel structure was no long valid due to fake news on BTC ETF. However this does not change completely my short-term view. I update this analysis with a new one, which is as follow