Bitcoin: Alternative Bullish Perspective 1D (May 03)

X Force Global Analysis:


While the evidence for a bearish case is overwhelming as well as the probabilities for a mid-term bearish move, as technical traders, we believe that it's important to explore both sides of the market. In this analysis, we look at the evidence that substantiate a bullish case.

Analysis

- The first thing that we spot is the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Ribbon
- When these moving averages form crosses - whether it be a golden or death cross - they functioned as clear guides of the short term trend
- For instance, during the bull market, we saw a 270%+ rise in prices after a confirmation provided by a golden cross
- Since then, we have seen 30-50% moves with confirmations provided by the EMA Ribbon
- Recently, the EMA Ribbon has formed a golden cross, signaling potentiality for further upside
- Secondly, we can see that the ascending parallel channel pattern has played out differently
- We first saw the formation of the parallel channel around December 2019
- Price broke below the channel support, followed by a pullback before further bearish movement.
- This time, on the other hand, we have seen a break up from the resisance
- Thus, a small correction for the immediate term could be interpreted as pullback before further rally
- It's also important to note that while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that Bitcoin is overbought, it has been in a constant uptrend for a while
- The RSI has created higher lows and higher highs as a sign of trend strength
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also shown signs of momentum, after a golden cross followed by an uptrend

Market Sentiment:

The long short ratio is at 66 to 34, with significantly more longs than shorts. The market sentiment remains extremely bullish despite the rapid move up from 3.5k.

What We Believe

We are currently testing the 0.786 fibonacci resistance and the descending parallel channel resistance. While a breakout of these resistance ranges would lead us to 12-14k ranges, we are facing extremely strong resistance, and believe that a bearish case is more likely at this point.

Trade Safe.