f-73

Watch out.

f-73 업데이트됨   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   비트코인
Bearish flag may hint right H&S shoulder.

Minor bullish flag/pennant got invalidated.
Price close to Daily upper BB.
Stoch RSI overbought.

Play safe.
코멘트:
Short time we have a (smaller) bullish flag about to expire.
Price is compressed between triangle upper bound of the flag and the dynamic support.


"Macro" picture unchanged.
코멘트:
Uninpressive break-up so far.
No volume.

코멘트:
Volume confirming the break-up, at last.
Bullish flag within its target area.

Stoch RSI overbought on 1D, 14H, 4H and 1H.
Beware, critical area.
코멘트:
OBV 1D:

OBV 4H:

Soon time to short.
Good luck.
코멘트:
May invalidate ascending triangle.
Pay attention.


Have a nice trading, time for some relax for me.
코멘트:
Ascending triangle confirmed as well, no invalidation.
More patience.
코멘트:
The turning point is just ahead.


Unless bulls can pierce through the upper bound of the bearish flag ( invalidating it ) and the ascendinge resistance from the lows a correction is coming.

Odds favour the bears, in my opinion.

So i'm closing my residual Longs above the 7000$ mark, as near as possible to flag limit.

Good luck.
코멘트:
Good to see Excavo posted today a similar view as mine:

Will see.
코멘트:
Awaiting signal.

코멘트:
Out of rising wedge with no confirmation.


Price didn't manage to touch / test the double resistance area ( purple / red ) above. It may reach it later, better holding the short till a signal.

Keep an eye on on the small blue triangle for ashort term hint.
코멘트:
Anyway, the "macro" picture as proposed 4 days ago is still unchanged.

The bearish flag is still in charge so far.
Price is currently very near to its supposed reversal zone.

Since yesterday i'm looking for a good short signal.

Patience needed. Unless price is gonna pierce through the resistance(s) ( roughly in 7200$ area as you can see ) i'm still expecting a strong correction.
코멘트:
Did you spot it ?


Gravestone doji ( almost )
코멘트:
Next hurdle on the way down is the dynamic support ( light blue, above ).
코멘트:
Anyway, thats support paints a rising wedge ...

코멘트:
Pushing through support.
So far it's moving according to the plan.


Would expect some local rebound from this area, si keep an eye on resistance.
코멘트:
Local rebound hypothesis is bound to this falling wedge:

코멘트:
Rebound likely, approaching 0.618 FIB retracement. About 6790$.

If price pierces through that level it's actually *better* for our plan.
Yet i think it's less likely for the price to go down further without a pause.

Let's see.
No change to the overall picture, traversing down the flag.
코멘트:
Bouncing as expected.
2 options here.

a) a lazy movement towards 6950-7000$ area on negligible volume, which would better fit our plan.

b) a movement up on good volume, which may end breaking up the wedge and testing the recent high(s) again. Meaning more patience needed,

Both options don't change the overall picture, option a) looks more likely.
코멘트:
Please like if you want to see this updated.
코멘트:
Rebound as expected.

Low on the mentioned fib 0.618 area.
High ( so far ) just under 7000$.

It's basically a throwback to the previous support (light blue) as you may notice.


It's now drawing a pennant.

-- Like the idea if you'd like to see it further updated.
코멘트:
Patience matters.

On the edge of the flag now.

코멘트:

come on.
It's about time.
코멘트:
So far low was close ( about 8$) to the highlighted 6824$ support.
May rebound a bit from here.
코멘트:
Sluggish rebound to 7000$ mark and more down, according to the plan.
The bearish flag proposed in the OP post is already confirmed and broken down.


Correction is quickly unfolding.
The recent low in the 6250$ area coincides with the statistical *minimum target* for such flag. Its purely theoretical target sits much lower, at about the 5000$ mark.

For now Stoch RSI / 1D should complete its route down, keep on eye on that as it will eventually hint the end of the correction. In the meantime i would expect a stronger technical rebound.

Watch for minor patterns unfolding, as they will offer some guidance for the next few hours.

Good luck, it's time for me to finally fly back home.
코멘트:
Stoch RSI / 1D is nearing the bottom.
There's still some room down left on the RSI.


This correction was a great ride down so far.
It's probably not over, yet I'm going to close my short as i dislike taking any unneeded risks. Moreover it's almost a 18% swing now ... time to consolidate some profit.

Will reconsider after looking at the price action.
코멘트:
Good timing, rebound at last.

If price manages to break consistently over 6400$ may bounce to FIB 0,618 at about 6600$.

Soon to say, but short time i'm inclined not going short again till 6750-6900$ is -eventually- reached.
코멘트:
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