Bitcoin: Tough Spot To Short.

Bitcoin swing trade support is between 28 and 29.5K. If you are looking for a bullish continuation pattern, that is the higher probability location to look (see horizontal lines forming zone on chart). The 31K AREA is the resistance which has been highlighted on my chart for WEEKS (see blue rectangle). It is clear price is hesitating here, and may be tempting to short, which is NOT a good idea in terms of swing trade risk. Let me explain.

First, we are in the midst of a holiday. Volume is generally lower across the board, and it is not reasonable to expect any kind of broad movements. If you are going to take any trade at all, it should be a low expectation day trade. For example, notice the outside bar that formed a couple of days ago. Initially it looked like a bearish signal off of a notable resistance, but as we can now see, there was NO follow through (no conviction).

Second, when a market lingers near a resistance, it is often a sign of strength. This is where opinions can really get traders into trouble. "Its too high" or "it HAS to pullback", etc. Probability based on price structure still favors the bullish side. And along with that, weakness often asserts itself QUICKLY when rejecting a resistance level. Not happening here at all.

Here are the best choices to consider in my opinion: AVOID the market during holidays, WAIT for the high probability support and confirmation for a long, or look for low expectation setups on smaller time frames (day trades) which is usually not a good idea for most people.

Save yourself the frustration and avoid trying to "make sense" of everything. Markets are MOSTLY random. The best information you can get is the price action itself. By accepting the reality of price you cultivate a more MARKET relevant perspective.

PLEASE NOTE: I will NOT be streaming tomorrow in accordance with the U.S. holiday. Enjoy and stay safe.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.