๐ค #BTCLIVE - 15.08 - #IDEA ๐ค - Part 4
๐ค #BTCLIVE - 15.08 - #IDEA ๐ค - Part 4
BTC Growth Models - Labs
Interestingly the growth models are all showing the bottom is coming in - this is not exactly news - we are currently using the (best imo) model for this which is the DXY*BTCSUPPLY/M2 or DBM Model for short* to find the best context. Whilst we are very very low in the percentiles here there is still a depressing distance that BTC can go to stay well withing the max pain parameters which can push to about 16k this would actually line up with some of the other scenarios I did on the dominances and totals. Other significant markers such as the pi cycle, ema floor model and cowen corridor are calling absolute bottom though.
in a nutshell - we are at the bottom but there could still be one last painful short term shot down. I feel this would not occur naturally and would take some pretty significant FUD to drive the price down to these levels.
Here we explore several prediction models:
QR = Standard Quantile Regression (QR) Model without any adjustments
DXY = Deflate BTC price as DXY increases, use this as basis for regression
M2 = Inflate BTC price as USD M2 Money Supply increases
BTCSUPPLY = Deflate BTC price as BTC Circulating Supply increases (no adjustment for lost coins)
DXY/M2 = Combination of DXY and M2 adjustments
DXY*BTCSUPPLY/M2 = Combination of DXY , BTC Supply and M2 adjustments
BTC Growth Models - Labs
Interestingly the growth models are all showing the bottom is coming in - this is not exactly news - we are currently using the (best imo) model for this which is the DXY*BTCSUPPLY/M2 or DBM Model for short* to find the best context. Whilst we are very very low in the percentiles here there is still a depressing distance that BTC can go to stay well withing the max pain parameters which can push to about 16k this would actually line up with some of the other scenarios I did on the dominances and totals. Other significant markers such as the pi cycle, ema floor model and cowen corridor are calling absolute bottom though.
in a nutshell - we are at the bottom but there could still be one last painful short term shot down. I feel this would not occur naturally and would take some pretty significant FUD to drive the price down to these levels.
Here we explore several prediction models:
QR = Standard Quantile Regression (QR) Model without any adjustments
DXY = Deflate BTC price as DXY increases, use this as basis for regression
M2 = Inflate BTC price as USD M2 Money Supply increases
BTCSUPPLY = Deflate BTC price as BTC Circulating Supply increases (no adjustment for lost coins)
DXY/M2 = Combination of DXY and M2 adjustments
DXY*BTCSUPPLY/M2 = Combination of DXY , BTC Supply and M2 adjustments
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