Some ranges get left behind ...

2020년 11월 1일

My shorter-term thesis mainly revolves around price negotiation.
On September 28. I was wondering whether this blue box/range was about to be done ...
Of course, me being the eternal bull when it comes to btc, I tended towards a move to 13k.
At the time of writing this, we're up 800 bucks above that.

Now, according to my own thesis we are currently overextended.
A rational thing to do here would be to pull back,
preferably in a gradual manner
towards somewhere between $12.5 and 12K —
possibly with a volatile wick or two further down into roughly the 11.7k area.

Also, it should be noted that a common truism posits that 30% pullbacks
in these kind of bull market set-ups are very typical and perhaps even "necessary" ...
That would put us at roughly around 9.5k

There are countless of reasons that could be mentioned here
for why incoming volatility across all markets is more likely than not
and why we could be setting up for larger, yet -temporary- pull-backs ...

Here comes the But:
Ever so often markets decide to leave certain ranges behind and never look back.
The events taking place on the global stage right now might just as well be in favour of this market.
I for one am not seeing a lot of weakness in this market.
But also I'm long from way below, so, as always — I'm biased.

Imagine the price just keeps crawling up along that dashed blue line.
16.5k by end of the year.
Imagine the disbelieve.
Imagine the capitulation.

Make no mistake — there will be corrections,
they will be devastating
(well, for some more than for others)
Imagine going from 16.5k back to 11.5k,
just to shoot straight back up the next day ...

Are you ready?
I am.

Keep stacking sats.
Keep your cool.
Stay safe out there.