Bitcoin Breaks The Bearish Structure! (BTC)
업데이트됨
Wow guys...that was not what I was expecting, but that goes to show you that no matter how hard you try to analyze this market, something crazy will happen. That being said, I've been cautiously bullish ever since February 8th, when we broke out of the falling wedge to the upside. That's where I made my last purchase. I was posting some bullish charts and was buying when the majority of Tradingview was still bearish. Below, I'll link to some of those ideas.
We actually smashed through the entire bear market resistance today on the first attempt and volatility is back with a vengeance. Although to be fair, it's not the first attempt at all. We actually tried getting through it many times during the 6K consolidation period. I was expecting a pullback once we reached that resistance for a final buying opportunity for anyone who wanted to get in. Unfortunately, those people may not have a chance to buy at those lower supports.
Where to now? Well...hard to say, but we could drop down to retest the broken resistance as support (near 4500), or even venture lower eventually to retest the high 3K zone (we built massive support there). Targets can indeed be as high as 6K and 10K, so I'd just keep a careful watch on this to see how we react to the previously broken log trend supports (if we can make it up there).
This is not a trade setup or a recommendation to buy or sell. This is just to show what has occurred, and why it's extremely bullish. I would be cautious if this move retraces entirely, but I don't expect that it will, unless something else is at play. Alts dumped or moved sideways on their Bitcoin ratios, but they're starting to move back up again. ETH and XRP in particular might have just had their final capitulation moves against Bitcoin. If the market has reversed, we should expect future selloffs to be fairly quick and painful, but for the overall trend to remain up.
Here is the first bullish setup I had (very close to bottom). It didn't play out exactly how I saw it, but the overall analysis was correct:
-Victor Cobra
We actually smashed through the entire bear market resistance today on the first attempt and volatility is back with a vengeance. Although to be fair, it's not the first attempt at all. We actually tried getting through it many times during the 6K consolidation period. I was expecting a pullback once we reached that resistance for a final buying opportunity for anyone who wanted to get in. Unfortunately, those people may not have a chance to buy at those lower supports.
Where to now? Well...hard to say, but we could drop down to retest the broken resistance as support (near 4500), or even venture lower eventually to retest the high 3K zone (we built massive support there). Targets can indeed be as high as 6K and 10K, so I'd just keep a careful watch on this to see how we react to the previously broken log trend supports (if we can make it up there).
This is not a trade setup or a recommendation to buy or sell. This is just to show what has occurred, and why it's extremely bullish. I would be cautious if this move retraces entirely, but I don't expect that it will, unless something else is at play. Alts dumped or moved sideways on their Bitcoin ratios, but they're starting to move back up again. ETH and XRP in particular might have just had their final capitulation moves against Bitcoin. If the market has reversed, we should expect future selloffs to be fairly quick and painful, but for the overall trend to remain up.
Here is the first bullish setup I had (very close to bottom). It didn't play out exactly how I saw it, but the overall analysis was correct:
-Victor Cobra
노트
Oh yeah, and this more recent call: 
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Since we are a bit overbought, it's possible that we have a correction in the coming months to the 3600 area for a final drop. ANYTHING is possible in this market and no one really knows anything. The really important thing is to be able to spot where things might be beginning to shift, and to plan accordingly (as I did in the low 3K area). 노트
That important support is in orange.노트
If we do happen to drop soon, the interesting thing would be to see what happens with alts. A lot of them are at major support levels that they've either created recently, or have created over the long term. This tells me one of three things:1) We actually have some room to go up
2) Bitcoin might cool off/stabilize as alts rally
3) Bitcoin and alts will capitulate for one last bottom (probably won't be a new low, but you never know).
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Oh, also this recent Bitcoin chart, where I suggested the bottom may be in: 
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