BTC to 7.8K? one pattern from the past

업데이트됨

hi guys. today i will show you little correlation from the past, where whales try to invalidate the bear market by trying to penetrate the weekly 21/50ema. it is strong resistance, with that dead cross, bear market continues. now, we resemble as the past 2014 November so much.

see november 2014. we had same 21/50ema kissing each other, trying to make a dead cross, but see how whales reacted to it. they shot through the 21/50ema resistance, went all the way up to 460, 470dollar almost to 500 dollars. that is the weekly ichimoku baseline that time. however, it failed to penetrate that but just dropped real lower from that time.

at that time daily, it went up the ichimoku clouds. a moonshot.

look at us now.

we also have a 21/50ema kissing now, trying to deadcross. our ichimoku baseline is 7.8k at the moment in weekly.

we have few similar data that matches now circumstances.

1. back in november, it dropped made a bearish engulfing candle
2.but it rebounded right back the week after
3.it didn't make a clear bull div, by making lower lows, but instead tried to make a hidden bull div, higher lows, but lower lows
in RSI and indicators.
4. it had the same danger of being dead crosses, with low low volume, RSI at similar numbers, same ichimoku cloud above
5.it also made bottoms at 270~300dollar range before the shoot up.

now, in daily we have same red ichimoku cloud, now, it is easier to go over that from 18~19th, or 28th, or 29th. 30th is ETF decision,
so short may be in favor that time around.

SO if we follow the same path, and we go for weekly ichimoku baseline, 100% same as past, 7800 can be the highest it can go!

BUT FOR NOW, this is just an information for you guys to check and observe. because, it is quite similar now, so we can study this, whether it happens or not. shorts are way too high again, and maybe a short squeeze to up levels and down can happen. even if it happens like this, after november 2014, it dropped and went to hell. so its just an IDEA, I do not believe this, but i am little aware of btc move now, especially for shorting, i do think we need to be careful. i still think we are extremely bearish, but i do think
this kind of squeeze can happen in crypto world, where, sometimes charts and indicators are not important, what whales want is more important. so for now, shorting at 66, 67 zone, needs to be careful, so i will update more. for now, this '21/50ema cross'
event like the past, is just an idea, a happening that happened in the past, not that it would happen. now, this idea is little more inclined to 'unreal', but something to look out for.

so the chart i have been uploading.

so check green, purple, red lines. i think, btc is making a hidden bull divergence now, and i do think a shoot up to high levels can come until 19th.

so watch out for this.

trading plan remains the same.

1.open long
6420/6380/6350/6310
target:66~67

2.open short
66~67
target:i will update this, if lucky 63.5 area, but maybe just 6580. shorts are way too high again, i don't like this sentiment now.

노트

Ok guys today it might rebound from 64 zone again and maybe go up to 6500ish but even though i think it has chance to come down in next 24~48hours before takeoff.you can go long a little bit maybe a scalping here at 64.5 6 zone a bit.still open long orders below for now.

노트

my 6420 long got filled, if it cannot break over 6550, it will come down again, this time 63zone too. so i plan to sell at 6530, 6540 if 6550 is not conquered. if that happens, one more day of consolidation.

노트

1hr chart. possible scenario here. for your reference.

노트

4hr. check two lines. we can break out to above from here, or we consolidate, one more day, pass the red ichimoku cloud 4hr, hit bottom and break above.

액티브 트레이드

longs all filled in at 63zone. let's see now. touched the bottom of the rising wedge. stoploss 6270.

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

stop reached. however did get in again at 62 zone, btc making little divergence over frames, still weak. if 6180 breaks i assume, we need to see much more lower lows. 6100 is monthly 20MA, good support, if that breaks down i don't think 5900 is good support, we should visit new lows maybe 5.4k(weekly bollinger band low line). so better to defend 6200 area and go up. daily, weekly stoch is bearish, nothing really much to say bullish at the moment. i will stoploss at 6180 for this trade, or just scalp to upper area. if that might happen.

노트

4hr chart. so, we did break the triangle, and the wedge, but our bottom from the start, 6100-6170, now 6200, indicates still rising wedge maybe in play, today we closed right at 6250, still bulls holding on. so 4hr, we still have bearish ichimoku above us, but on 19th, there maybe a chance to break upwards. if we hold on to our support. for today, we need to hold 6250 first, after that, we need to break 6350/6380, at least once, close 1hr, 4hr at that point even though it comes down. in that way, it can slowly gain bullishness again. if we cannot go over 6400ish until early 19th, still in resistance zone, we can fall hard again. i bought btc more 6237(stoploss 6180), eth at 195(stoploss 192), so let's see what btc can do today.

노트

also, people can say that btc can drop to 5k. yes of course possible. how? if we breakdownwards 6100. 6100 is where monthly 20MA is at, where btc was supported from many months ago. so if monthly 20ma breaks down, we have weekly 100ema(5860~70), but that is not safe at all. so breaking 6100 in short term is very important key point where we risk another 700~800dollar drop or not. so even if btc breaks down below 6100, DO NOT BUY because, that would mean btc needs to start making a new cycle, by visiting lower lows, which would take days or weeks.

노트

things are not looking good now. i think we have only 8~10 hours to go above 6350, and try to be bullish, right now, it is very bearish. as mentioned, i do not think 6100 will be defended, if we go down, if that price breaks down look out for green box prices 5.5~5.6, which, i do think will hit daily oversold(ris 30 or below), even we get a bounce i do think it will come down. so btc better show some miracle, or unless we go to hell. i cannot judge how low we can go, if we break down 6k means so many things, a support we have defended for so many months now, we could see a panic sell which i cannot tell quite where the bottom would be. so watch out for price actions, and if we even close below 6250 tomorrow, i assure you to cutloss or sell your long positions.

노트

another scenario, for going down from here, RSI bull divergence is definitely needed in daily, this is what i have been talking about. we have went to 6589 with just 4hr,1hr divergence, and maybe a little hidden bull div on daily, which is short lived. if we go to 6100 now, i believe we would not make such a good divergence, rsi should drop more or just be similar as former,not powerful so it might come to 5950. if we see a bull div on daily frame like that, we can go long at that point. so this is a mitigated long scenario for now, preventing such deep drops.

노트

btc showing strength, not quite convincing yet. so short term happiness again. i sold some eth at 207, sold some xrp(got in at 0.27dollars), hold btc at 6259, will try to sell some too. let's see now. we are still in danger zone, we need to break 6350, and at least close 1hr, 4hr at that point.

노트

those youf you interested in xrp. overbought 4hr, it will come down to retest the downtrendline. long position buy zone 0.3/0.27~0.29 dollar again. it should come i think. yesterday ripple breakout moved btc, now ripple overbought will move btc.

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I sold all my btc eth positions went short xrp short term at 5250 sat plan to add 5477 5688 5850.target is below 4500 short term.

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so back to btc, keeps trying to break above 6380, if it failes in 4hr, closing below 63350 or something in coming hours it could test 6300, and even below levels. so if you want to open long you can buy 6300 first, not much, after that you can open 6260~80, stoploss should be 6220. alts are breaking upwards, but, as i see it. ETH already broke above, XRP already broke above, now cardano broke above, they are all in some resistance zones now. this could mean that one pumping cycle is finished short term, maybe a retracement(already!) could come, even we don't feel price has not changed much. so keep an eye on it now.

노트

ok, so it touched 6290 i think, a little bounce now. so blue box, always can come, also below blue box can come too so be aware. btc keep making these rising wedges, which is so bearish, because of low volume. rising wedges eventually breaks down below, and we have huge bearish flag still, intact with this small move up. very boring, this consolidation can go awhile, i sold 30% of my xrp short entries at 5250 satoshi at 4900 satoshis, plan to hold for a while.
what i feel now guys, is that btc is very bearish, i feel gloomy everyday, looking at these prices. the fact that it tries to defend 6100/6000, with such low volume, with these rising wedges, twice already(august), indicate that 6k support, if we panic sell below that we see more below. remember we had a v-shape bounce from 6000 at Feb? bounce from this level keeps weakening since, higher lows are made, so this btc trading range, from 6100~6800, seems very sad at the moment, i think we would not see sub 5.7k in coming week or two, but if we touch resistance at 6.8~7k, maybe we see sub 5.7 next month. so do not feel too positive(longterm yes), there are buyers at 6.2~6.3 level, but i think they buy because they know where the bounce ends.

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Btc went to 6100 came up!daily bull div finally being made now much better.my longs filled in.i will hold that now.

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check entry boxs, hold long, only think about the end goal. i even bought cardano now, it is still in the beginning level of a good run.