A flight of capital to consider

업데이트됨

After reaching more than $28,500 on Monday, Bitcoin fell to about $27,200. So far, that seems to justify our skepticism about the recent rally (a potential fakeout). However, the number of Bitcoin addresses with 1,000 BTC or more in the balance started to tick slightly higher, which raises our suspicion as it is a bullish development. In addition to that, MACD continues to rise on the daily chart (already within the bullish zone), and RSI failed to break down. To support a bearish thesis, we want to see MACD start flattening (eventually reversing) and RSI, with Stochastic declining. Furthermore, we want to see Bitcoin struggle to regain a foothold above $28,000. To support the bullish thesis, we want to see all mentioned technicals rise on the daily chart; additionally, we want to see Bitcoin march higher, being accompanied by an uptick in volume.

While we still remain skeptical about the steep price tags that people continue to predict, there is one bullish scenario to consider. We refer to the phenomenon we saw in the late first quarter of 2023, when regional banks began to implode, which caused a shortlived flight of capital into Bitcoin. Recently, the U.S. banking sector (mainly regional banks) has started to weaken again, which would be one thing to pay attention to in the near future (along with commercial bank deposits). Nonetheless, at the moment, this is rather a thought than a concern.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of Stochastic. The yellow arrows indicate a bearish divergence.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

노트

Today, Bitcoin attempted to take a foothold above $28,000 but failed. A breakout below $27,000 will bolster a bearish case.

노트

Bitcoin is starting to find increasingly more resistance around $28,000, which paints a bearish picture.