Spocks-Beard

BTC elliot wave count

Spocks-Beard 업데이트됨   
BINANCE:BTCUSD   비트코인
ok this is more of an update to my last count which i now think is off, the wxyxz on the minor 1 caught me out, so i now think we are on wave 3 of 5 - 41-43k
코멘트:
ok ive picked through it, that one is also wrong, im not gonna do another update cos the top price is about the same anyway, its just the wave count was off, if you can be bothered to pick through it, below , hopefully no more updates now =0)

코멘트:
the abc at the bottom there should be wxy, i forgot to change it
코멘트:
both of them
코멘트:

ok so i think it plays out like this, so will be an A-B-C corrective move that dumps to a lower low from about 40k
코멘트:

Maybe this next
코멘트:
call it 22950
코멘트:

Since it hit that target faster than expected, im gonna say it was just abc of the Y wave and it goes up there somewhere now
코멘트:

dropped below that price so looks like the abc idea was the right one
코멘트:

just looked at this again now im awake i think its gonna be another one of those wxyxz and then a decent move up for the top of 3
코멘트:

so lets say 22810 for starters and see if we get anything there
코멘트:
could be in already if we go there
코멘트:
i think it has to go deeper cos if its a big abc we need a deeper c and if it wxyxz we need a z that goes deeper than the y
코멘트:

occams razor and all that..
코멘트:

same outcome either way so..
코멘트:
soif this count is correct , we cant go any higher than there, cos that the top/or bottom in this case of the 1 wave
코멘트:

Might get that if we're lucky
코멘트:
so if it dont fake out, and hit the bottom line now we
must be this
코멘트:
코멘트:

should be somewhere in that box depending where people have put their fibs on that 1 wave, i would imagine most people will put it on the top of the x wave, so the higher target migt be on
코멘트:
this should help
코멘트:
코멘트:
price is already below far left shoulder,
코멘트:

so i think we could get something like that for the rest of the count
코멘트:
could maybe get 34500 here at a push
코멘트:
30 is more likely tho
코멘트:

tightened this chart up
코멘트:

i believe this is the macro count, so you probably want to have an escape plan in order after 40k, i would expect 5k as a minimum retrace, probably much lower, because of over leveraged positions causing margin cascades on some exchanges. the impulse bottom was 1 cent so in theory we can go to 1.1 cents and not break the wave, i think alts could possibly just do their own thing from here on out, regardless of bitcoin as they appear to be on entirely different long term cycles
코멘트:
the reason im bearish after 40k - look at the top btc made and compare to all other btc tops, if you are keen eyed you will notice that the double top is orientated the opposite way to all other btc tops, btc tops dont make a high, then a higher high then dump, they're always the other way around - high lower high dump, the only time you see this kind of price action is on the 1 and 3 wave tops- hence this is not the top, and since the long term count fits a macro 1 wave this then points to a deep correction
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