BTC looks to be either starting wave 5 of the elliot wave cycle, or currently in wave 4. Either way if this is the case we are still to see a lot of upwards movement this year.
Wave 1 start at around the $920 mark back in March this year. It the proceeded to advance to $2950 (300%) in just 2 1/2 months. From here we saw a correction to $1600. This correction retraced 50-62%. Wave 3 was then confirmed once we were able to break the previous high of $2950, and hit our current high of $4950. This was just under 1.62x the length of wave 1, which is shorter than most 3rd waves, however not uncommon. Thanks to some news, the price has since retraced to the previous high of $2950, which has now been confirmed as a strong support level .
From here I can see a couple of potential outcomes
a) Price uses the retracement to $2950 and bounces to around $7400
b) We see wave 4 form a triangle pattern , before breaking out to about $7400
Personally I feel as though option b is more likely as the price dropped to $2950 quite quick, and I'd like to see the market stabilize before reaching a new high. From here we could potentially see the start of a bearmarket.
The only thing I currently see that could indicate we are in fact at the beginning of a bear market, is the bearish divergence on the MACD . This generally occurs at the peak of wave 5. However I'm confident that wave 3 is not in fact wave 5 due to the length. I feel we wouldn't have reached as high as $4950 if it was in fact wave 5
Wave 1 start at around the $920 mark back in March this year. It the proceeded to advance to $2950 (300%) in just 2 1/2 months. From here we saw a correction to $1600. This correction retraced 50-62%. Wave 3 was then confirmed once we were able to break the previous high of $2950, and hit our current high of $4950. This was just under 1.62x the length of wave 1, which is shorter than most 3rd waves, however not uncommon. Thanks to some news, the price has since retraced to the previous high of $2950, which has now been confirmed as a strong support level .
From here I can see a couple of potential outcomes
a) Price uses the retracement to $2950 and bounces to around $7400
b) We see wave 4 form a triangle pattern , before breaking out to about $7400
Personally I feel as though option b is more likely as the price dropped to $2950 quite quick, and I'd like to see the market stabilize before reaching a new high. From here we could potentially see the start of a bearmarket.
The only thing I currently see that could indicate we are in fact at the beginning of a bear market, is the bearish divergence on the MACD . This generally occurs at the peak of wave 5. However I'm confident that wave 3 is not in fact wave 5 due to the length. I feel we wouldn't have reached as high as $4950 if it was in fact wave 5
코멘트:
Price bounced perfectly off both the upper and lower lines
