September was an important month for BTC as it finally broke below the bear flag channel that it formed off the June lows.
Things to note:
- Aug & Sept monthly candles both closed BELOW the 50EMA
- unable to get back inside the BF channel since it broke down from it late August
- June low @ $17.6K has held so far, but Dow, S&P & Nasdaq have ALL made lower lows, indicating that the cryptos may not be far behind (all markets move together)
- the 100EMA is the next major support level @ $12.6K
My relief rally target to the upside is @ the 50EMA + the BF support line @ $22K - $23K.
Bear targets:
- Bear target #1 test June low as support @ $17.6k
- 100EMA support level @ $12.6K (could be the bottom so let's keep an open mind)
- Bear target #2 BF measured move @ $9k
- Macro bottom range $6,500 - $9,500
It wouldn't surprise me to see a quick move lower this week, followed by a bounce/relief rally into mid-October.
I'm still thinking we set a tradable bottom by the end of Oct/early Nov.
Cheers
Things to note:
- Aug & Sept monthly candles both closed BELOW the 50EMA
- unable to get back inside the BF channel since it broke down from it late August
- June low @ $17.6K has held so far, but Dow, S&P & Nasdaq have ALL made lower lows, indicating that the cryptos may not be far behind (all markets move together)
- the 100EMA is the next major support level @ $12.6K
My relief rally target to the upside is @ the 50EMA + the BF support line @ $22K - $23K.
Bear targets:
- Bear target #1 test June low as support @ $17.6k
- 100EMA support level @ $12.6K (could be the bottom so let's keep an open mind)
- Bear target #2 BF measured move @ $9k
- Macro bottom range $6,500 - $9,500
It wouldn't surprise me to see a quick move lower this week, followed by a bounce/relief rally into mid-October.
I'm still thinking we set a tradable bottom by the end of Oct/early Nov.
Cheers