RLinda ! Ahead of week 47. Overview of DXY, GOLD, EURUSD, BTCUSD

2022년 11월 19일

The dollar rose slightly (to 107,043) on Friday and remained on track for its biggest weekly gain in a month as investors continued to bet on the U.S.


(Chart1: Daily DXY timeframe. technical analysis)

The index recently rose about 0.58% since the beginning of the week, the biggest gain since early October and representing a partial reversal of last week's 4% loss when U.S. inflation data caused the index's steepest weekly drop since March 2020

Treasury bond yields rose for a second straight day, with the 10-year US10Y yield at 3.825% after rising to 3.827%

Technical Analysis:

• The index moves into the lower price channel and is sandwiched between 109 and 106. After the false breakdown of the support, focused on July 14, 2022, we see the formation of a pullback, which may continue towards 109.000 (resistance zone)
  
• With the subsequent prospect of weaker inflation and a more loyal view of the Fed, we could see a further weakening of the index and its decline towards 101.297
  
• Price continues to be supported by the daily MA-200
  
• Daily RSI shows bearish strength, while indicating local weakening
  
• Daily MACD is showing a strong bearish trend and is in the red zone
  

(Chart2. Daily timeframe XAUUSD. Technical analysis)

Gold is testing the trendline resistance formed from September 1, 2022. The price did not reach the daily MA-200, at the same time a false break of the upside resistance, horizontal resistance of 1765.575 and a bullish signal from the Gartley pattern are formed.

Gold closed lower on Friday amid a rising dollar and bond yields. The drop came as the dollar rose after an early weakening, making the precious metal more expensive for international buyers. The ICE dollar index last rose 0.25 points to 106.94.

Rising bond yields are also putting pressure on the non-interest-bearing metal. The yield on 10-year U.S. bonds last rose 5 basis points to 3.821%.

Nevertheless, gold remains near a three-month high as investors count on the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates.

Technical Analysis:

• Gold continues to feel pressure from the resistance in the form of the daily MA-200, the price is in an upward range (approximately between 1783 and to 1720)
  
• The price makes a false break of the strong resistance zone and forms a decline, also a bullish signal is indicated by the presence of a bearish Gartley "Bat" pattern
  
• Daily Gartley pattern retracement of 0.889 (ideally 0.886) from the XA movement. Signal for a bullish movement.
  
• Daily RSI gives a bearish signal and the price indicator on the chart also coincides with it
  
• Daily MACD tends to the crossover point of the sliders, at the same time the chart fades after a green spike, indicating a corrective movement.
  

(Chart 3. BTCUSD daily timeframe. Technical analysis).

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is about $890 billion. These figures show an increase in market capitalization of $10 billion. However, bitcoin's dominance has decreased and now stands at 36.6%.

With the current volatility, players are likely to act cautiously as events unfold.
The latest bitcoin price readings show that the coin is in a downtrend. The FTX collapse may also have contributed to this downward spiral. Investors have cut their losing positions to cut their losses and prevent an open bankruptcy.

Interesting reaction from investors:

• Glassnode report says wallets with 10,000+ BTC balances are rising amid a downtrend
  
• El Salvador began buying 1 BTC daily
  
• Edward Snowden feels with his body that bitcoin is testing the bottom)))
  
• Glassnode: Wallets with balances of 0-1000 BTC are actively buying back in the fall
  
• Glassnode: Wallets with balances of 1000+ are suspended
  
• Miners sell 1/3 more BTC than they mine
  

Technical Analysis:

• Bitcoin is succumbing to pressure from the MA-200 and MA-50 daily moving averages. The price is moving down from the long-term down range that began its formation in mid-June.
  
• Price consolidation under the support of the earlier broken range as well as under the trend lines indicates a strong bearish market sentiment, which is also affected by the fundamental factors.
  
• The daily RSI indicates the strength of the bears, even after the bullish signal.
  
• The daily MACD is in the red zone and it is fading as the price declines to its low volatility.
  

There are a huge number of preconditions that bitcoin will rise, but only after another plunge down, towards 13000-9500


(Chart 4. EURUSD Daily Timeframe Technical Analysis)

Investors turned bearish on the dollar after the more modest-than-expected U.S. inflation report for October came out Nov. 10, supporting expectations that the Fed might slow the pace of tightening. According to some analysts, the report was the strongest indication yet that inflation may be turning around.

The euro's net long position, meanwhile, rose to 112,666 contracts, the most since June 2021.
Recent trends have been heavily influenced by aggressive coverage of gross euro shorts - especially after the ECB (European Central Bank) returned its key rate above zero

• The price is testing the resistance of the ascending range, the upper boundary of which began to form on July 14, 2022.
  
• Also within the distributive movement we saw a false break of the resistance in the form of the daily MA-200, the price is now moving towards the support of the range.
  
• Daily RSI is still above the 60th line, the indicator has not entered the overbought zone
  
• Daily MACD shows strong bullish sentiment.
  
• I expect a technical pullback in a new uptrend
  

Regards R. Linda!