Last Point Of Supply (LPSY): The (LPSY) is preceded by Preliminary Supply (PSY), Buying Climax (BC), Automatic Reaction (AR), Seconary Test (ST), and a Sign of Weakness (SOW). After all these, the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) occurs.
The reaction preceding the (LPSY) must be a (SOW). Any possible or potential (SOW) must be confirmed, denied or left in doubt by the SUBSEQUENT rally. If the rally has a relative lack of demand, generally evidenced by a decreased spread and decreased volume, this would be CONFIRMATION and PROOF of a (LPSY). However, should demand still be strong on that rally as evidenced by good or increased volume as well as a wide or widening spread, it is usually best to regard such action as a DENIAL of the (SOW) and such action may well leave the interpretation of the (SOW) and the (LPSY) in doubt. When this occurs DO NOT take a SHORT POSITION. It is better to miss a move then to run a great risk of being wrong.
The (LPSY) rally will often stop just below the ½ way point. It is NOT particularly important where a (LPSY) stops on the rally, however, it very often turns in the vicinity of that that ½ way point. There is no one exact point in which to take a position. YOU MUST judge the (LPSY) as it occurs and attempt to establish a short position as close to the TURNING POINT as possible. Often you can tie this in with other principles, such as: The meeting of the supply line, The previous supply or support area and the ½ way point, Very often the (LPSY) will come in the same area as the (PSY) or the (BC).
마지막 공급 시점 (LPSY) : (LPSY) 앞에 예비 공급 (PSY), 구매 클라이맥스 (BC), 자동 반응 (AR), 2 차 시험 (ST) 및 약점 (SOW)이 있습니다.
이 모든 후에 LPSY (Last Supply of Supply)가 발생합니다.
(LPSY) 앞의 반응은 (SOW) 여야합니다. SUBSEQUENT 랠리에서 가능성 또는 가능성 (SOW)을 확인, 거부 또는 의심의 여지가 있어야합니다.
랠리에 상대적으로 수요가 부족한 경우 (일반적으로 스프레드가 감소하고 볼륨이 줄어듦) 이는 (LPSY)의 확인 및 증명입니다.
그러나 규모가 넓거나 넓어짐에 따라 양호 또는 증가한 물량으로 입증 된 랠리에 대한 수요가 여전히 강할 경우,
일반적으로 그러한 행동은 (SOW)의 거부와 같은 행동으로 간주하는 것이 가장 좋으며 그러한 행동은 해석에 영향을 줄 수 있습니다 의심의 여지없이 (SOW)와 (LPSY).
이런 경우에는 짧은 위치를 취하지 마십시오. 잘못 될 위험이 큰 이동을 놓치는 것이 좋습니다.
(LPSY) 랠리는 종종 ½ 웨이 포인트 바로 아래에서 멈 춥니 다.
랠리에서 (LPSY)가 멈추는 곳은 특별히 중요하지 않지만, ½ 웨이 포인트 부근에서 매우 자주 회전합니다.
입장을 취할 정확한 포인트는 없습니다. 반드시 (LPSY)를 판단하고 가능한 한 회전 지점에 가까운 짧은 위치를 설정해야합니다.
공급 라인 회의, 이전 공급 또는 지원 영역 및 ½ 웨이 포인트와 같은 다른 원칙으로이를 묶을 수 있습니다. 종종 (LPSY)는 (PSY)와 같은 영역에 있습니다. (BC).
코멘트:
코멘트:
weekly
weekly
액티브 트레이드:
closed scalp short 9650, this wick made me think we have another leg up.
코멘트:
OI dropped , Price dropped = long covering.
long covering rally could in place.
long covering rally could in place.
코멘트:
저는 두개의 계정으로 트레이딩을 하며
한개의 계정은 10244 에서 short 포지션을 오픈하여 스윙 포지션을 갖고 있으며
다른 하나의 계정은 scalp 계정으로 사용중입니다.
시장은 어떻게 움직일 지 아무도 알 수 없기에 항상 hedge 하셔서 risk management
꼭 하셔야 합니다.
현재 포지션이 없다면
9.1 이 깨지고 retest 시에 short 포지션을 오픈하여 스윙으로 가져갈 수 있다고 생각하며 long position 은 10.5 돌파시 retest 를 볼 수 있다고 보여집니다.
전 short bias 입니다.
한개의 계정은 10244 에서 short 포지션을 오픈하여 스윙 포지션을 갖고 있으며
다른 하나의 계정은 scalp 계정으로 사용중입니다.
시장은 어떻게 움직일 지 아무도 알 수 없기에 항상 hedge 하셔서 risk management
꼭 하셔야 합니다.
현재 포지션이 없다면
9.1 이 깨지고 retest 시에 short 포지션을 오픈하여 스윙으로 가져갈 수 있다고 생각하며 long position 은 10.5 돌파시 retest 를 볼 수 있다고 보여집니다.
전 short bias 입니다.
액티브 트레이드:
scalp long 9675
stop 9645
stop 9645
코멘트:
move stop to breakeven. this seems to go little more upward
cvd flat , oi flat , spread up to 10.2 (okex fut, mex)
cvd flat , oi flat , spread up to 10.2 (okex fut, mex)
매매 수동청산:
long scalp closed 9811
now i will look for short
now i will look for short
코멘트:
TRADE
PLAN -> WAITING -> EXECUTION ( OPEN & CLOSE )
(This is where most trader get fxxxed)
PLAN -> WAITING -> EXECUTION ( OPEN & CLOSE )
(This is where most trader get fxxxed)
코멘트:
oi, delta, cvd all flat for now.
expect big move soon, holding swing short.
stop 10.2 (breakeven)
will look for long scalp from 8.4 under
expect big move soon, holding swing short.
stop 10.2 (breakeven)
will look for long scalp from 8.4 under
코멘트:
dominance seems to ready to break too.
dominance seems to ready to break too.
코멘트:
short scalp 9740 9780 9820 ladder
stop 9860 ish
short scalp 9740 9780 9820 ladder
stop 9860 ish
코멘트:
okex spot 9670 buy demand
okex fut 9810 (9760 spot -premium) sell orders
okex fut 9810 (9760 spot -premium) sell orders
코멘트:
bitstamp orderflow (supply line *RED)
bitstamp orderflow (supply line *RED)
코멘트:
4hour close in 20min
OI rising , cvd turned negative
move incoming, opening short here in market price
stop remains same.
OI rising , cvd turned negative
move incoming, opening short here in market price
stop remains same.
코멘트:
8.8 - 8.4 seems to be good target for first.
코멘트:
another attemp to break ?
if we break 9850 , 10k is easy target
another attemp to break ?
if we break 9850 , 10k is easy target
매매 수동청산:
short scalp stop triggered
액티브 트레이드:
half size opened at 9850
stop 9.9
stop 9.9
코멘트:
stop move to breakeven
코멘트:
Phase C: In distribution, Phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR. This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and, subsequently, sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.
Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until Phase D and an LPSY.
Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, Phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR.
Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble.
We are moving C->D
Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until Phase D and an LPSY.
Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, Phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR.
Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in Phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During Phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within Phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during Phase D is asking for trouble.
We are moving C->D
코멘트:
코멘트:
if you blow the ballon out lound, it will explode. never pierce with a needle.
코멘트:
first btc etf german exchange by this month
코멘트:
easy
만약 하락하여 8.9 부분에서 반등할 경우 현재는 PHASE D 가 아닌 PHASE B 일 가능성이 큽니다. 이런 경우는 10.5-11k 정도까지도 반등을 열어둘 수 있습니다.
8.5 부분에서 지지되는 경우 PHASE D 일 가능성이 가장 큽니다.
easy
만약 하락하여 8.9 부분에서 반등할 경우 현재는 PHASE D 가 아닌 PHASE B 일 가능성이 큽니다. 이런 경우는 10.5-11k 정도까지도 반등을 열어둘 수 있습니다.
8.5 부분에서 지지되는 경우 PHASE D 일 가능성이 가장 큽니다.
액티브 트레이드:
moving short scalp stop to 9720 from 9850
매매 수동청산:
short scalp closed in 9720, might attempt for another upward thrust.
코멘트:
cvd rise stronger, seems sellers absorption. opening long scalp around here
코멘트:
*short
코멘트:
we had massive buy absorption on this red box.
not sure what this is aiming for, break out upward or downward,
its going to be massive move anyway.
tight stop must follow
we had massive buy absorption on this red box.
not sure what this is aiming for, break out upward or downward,
its going to be massive move anyway.
tight stop must follow
코멘트:
short scalp 9.8ish
stop above 9.9
stop above 9.9
매매 수동청산:
short scalp closed in break even. waiting for reaction SoS , SoW anything that comes first
액티브 트레이드:
long scalp 9735
stop under 9700
stop under 9700
매매 수동청산:
trailing stopped 9750
코멘트:
waiting to open short scalp above 9.9
코멘트:
lots of absorption both buy/sell side.
spot sells btc , futs open long position made me think we have another leg up (could be wick) then NUKE
많은 양의 비트가 판매되었고 선물에는 많은 양의 롱 포지션이 오픈되었습니다.
다음 메이저 오더블럭은 9.9-10.2 사이에 포진하여있습니다.
spot sells btc , futs open long position made me think we have another leg up (could be wick) then NUKE
많은 양의 비트가 판매되었고 선물에는 많은 양의 롱 포지션이 오픈되었습니다.
다음 메이저 오더블럭은 9.9-10.2 사이에 포진하여있습니다.
코멘트:
break 9760 again , we will hit higher target.
reject back 9760 , downside first :)
reject back 9760 , downside first :)
액티브 트레이드:
opened short 10010
stop 10200
target 8.8
stop 10200
target 8.8
코멘트:
GREAT R/R (Risk/Reward) ratio for SHORT
GREAT R/R (Risk/Reward) ratio for SHORT
코멘트:
cvd/obv all turned bearish since 12:30pm
oi falling
another move very soon, my bias is short.
oi falling
another move very soon, my bias is short.
코멘트:
moving stop to 9840
코멘트:
sell on spot, net long on futs ?
코멘트:
lots of sell in spots, but bought in futs.
curios of purpose.
curios of purpose.
코멘트:
Oi RISE, CVD down = short covering
and i believe this short covering is not from the CO (composite man)
totally from retail investor i reckon.
and i believe this short covering is not from the CO (composite man)
totally from retail investor i reckon.
코멘트:
max pain would be straight to 7.7 value area.
코멘트:
lots of sell pressure on order book. cvd still negative, obv follows. delta negative.
lots of sell pressure on futs too.
not sure if we can make another bounce up before nuke.
i tighten up my stop to 9.8. will wait to see more reaction more downside.
lots of sell pressure on futs too.
not sure if we can make another bounce up before nuke.
i tighten up my stop to 9.8. will wait to see more reaction more downside.
코멘트:
SoW confirmed
코멘트:
val area 9300-9450
will move stop to 9.5 if we break this value area.
will move stop to 9.5 if we break this value area.
코멘트:
snipboard.io/679VOs.jpg
okex futs : oi down, price up , cvd up ( sell covering , also buying pressure *market )
okex futs : oi down, price up , cvd up ( sell covering , also buying pressure *market )
코멘트:
snipboard.io/3joUDX.jpg
mex : oi down, price up , cvd down ( sell covering , no buying pressure on cvd )
mex : oi down, price up , cvd down ( sell covering , no buying pressure on cvd )
코멘트:
mex : buy activity between 9360 - 9380 and keep filling short
코멘트:
First orderblock retested, 9520-9540 is next orderblock.
코멘트:
9520-9540 is highest value area in this trend.
9520-9540 is highest value area in this trend.
코멘트:
POC
코멘트:
cvd about to turning negative, rejected on POC (point of control)
oi keep falling from okex futs. no demand on spots.
seeking to dive in to LVN around 8.8 - 8.5 in a day.
oi keep falling from okex futs. no demand on spots.
seeking to dive in to LVN around 8.8 - 8.5 in a day.
매매 수동청산:
oi massive drop last night in okex futs, (unwind position?)
closing short from 10k, will look for another entry around 9540-9630.
closing short from 10k, will look for another entry around 9540-9630.
코멘트:
snipboard.io/0jvmg6.jpg
지난 밤 현물거래소 9550 가격대에서
OKEX Futures 의 Oi 가 대폭 하락함 ( Position unwind )
이 후 가격은 약 상승형태를 갖으며
CVD 가 상승하였고 ( New long position )
현 시간 토요일 낮 12시 기준으로 9640 부근까지의 상승 가능성을 보여주는 orderblock 들이 형성 되어 있음.
CVD 상승과 함께 Fut 에서의 short filled 는 주말 상승 / 월요일 큰 하락을 예고한다고 추측
지난 밤 현물거래소 9550 가격대에서
OKEX Futures 의 Oi 가 대폭 하락함 ( Position unwind )
이 후 가격은 약 상승형태를 갖으며
CVD 가 상승하였고 ( New long position )
현 시간 토요일 낮 12시 기준으로 9640 부근까지의 상승 가능성을 보여주는 orderblock 들이 형성 되어 있음.
CVD 상승과 함께 Fut 에서의 short filled 는 주말 상승 / 월요일 큰 하락을 예고한다고 추측
코멘트:
액티브 트레이드:
long scalp : 9.3 ish
stop : 9.2
stop : 9.2
코멘트:
코멘트:
snipboard.io/IbWV8e.jpg
sell pressure on futs, oi rise , price drop = new shorts.
cvd negative = retail investor is opening new short position is my expectation.
we shall see a bounce from 9.3 to 9.6 or more in weekend.
sell pressure on futs, oi rise , price drop = new shorts.
cvd negative = retail investor is opening new short position is my expectation.
we shall see a bounce from 9.3 to 9.6 or more in weekend.
액티브 트레이드:
laddered long from 9320 - 9250
stop remains same 9.2 or little lower.
stop remains same 9.2 or little lower.
코멘트:
4.5 R/R
코멘트:
long orders not been filled
which side come first will get filled anyway
which side come first will get filled anyway
액티브 트레이드:
moving short scalp to 9.6ish
cancel long scalp, doesnt seems like it will visit. trapped trader setup has been made.
cancel long scalp, doesnt seems like it will visit. trapped trader setup has been made.
코멘트:
액티브 트레이드:
opened long scalp 9376
코멘트:
8.3 R/R not max R/R i was looking for, but still worth tryin.
target over 9.5
8.3 R/R not max R/R i was looking for, but still worth tryin.
target over 9.5
코멘트:
moving stop to breakeven
코멘트:
cvd turn positive, oi rising, price follows -> pushing little upward or trapped trader setup.
매매 수동청산:
closed long scalp 9415
looking to add short from here to 9.6 if we wick there.
cvd turned bearish, lots of absorption these area now.
looking to add short from here to 9.6 if we wick there.
cvd turned bearish, lots of absorption these area now.
코멘트:
opened long scalp 9280ish
stop below last low.
this seems tight range for today low.
we had buy absorption these area few hours ago.
seems we will touch upside before head down.
target 9.5-9.7
stop below last low.
this seems tight range for today low.
we had buy absorption these area few hours ago.
seems we will touch upside before head down.
target 9.5-9.7
코멘트:
R/R is worth taking since i have no short scalp position atm.
stop move to break even
R/R is worth taking since i have no short scalp position atm.
stop move to break even
매매 수동청산:
Long scalp stop triggered, opening another one here. Reckon we see higher price before nuke. Many absoprtion drop is backing idea
코멘트:
low 9k been sweep. expect some short stop hunt following days
액티브 트레이드:
long position filled , avg 9029
stop 8.7
stop 8.7
코멘트:
코멘트:
moving stop to 8.5 , adding more longs here to 8.6 .
no bullish reaction follows just yet. cvd turning to positive (still negative)
buy walls appearing from here.
no bullish reaction follows just yet. cvd turning to positive (still negative)
buy walls appearing from here.
코멘트:
will cut half of position near 9.3k
코멘트:
snipboard.io/95LhB4.jpg
cvd turned positive , oi falling , price rising
its good time for long in short tf.
im cutting half position near 9.3k
could retest of daily demand (8.7-8.9)
cvd turned positive , oi falling , price rising
its good time for long in short tf.
im cutting half position near 9.3k
could retest of daily demand (8.7-8.9)
액티브 트레이드:
stop 25% at 9100, if 9100 break, most likely demand will retest 8.9-9
