BTCUSD Elliott Wave Analysis - Counts and Forecasts

2017년 6월 30일

Before Wave V can commence, Wave IV must exert it's toll, the dreaded correction. How this correction will play out can take several forms. Since we are early into the TIME aspect of this correction, it is impossible to state how it will develop. As a reminder, the correction after Wave I, took the form of a Zig-Zag, and spanned approximately 1 year, Jan - Dec 2015.

While not "Rules", Elliott Wave Analysis does set out "Guidelines" in additional to "Rules". In regard to Corrections, I have copied these guidelines and am including them here for your information (education) and convenience. The source is at: wavaholic.com/2010/01/elliott-wave-rules-and-guidelines.html
- If wave 2 was a sharp correction, wave 4 will almost always be a sideways correction and vice versa (Alternation).
- Wave 2 is usually a zigzag or zigzag combination.
- Wave 4 is usually a flat, triangle or combination thereof.
- Wave 4 usually ends within the price territory of the fourth wave of wave 3.
-- (in this case, this may be ignored as wave 4 of 3 of W-III is below the crest of W-I, and W-IV may not, by rule, impose into W-I territory.)

So, recapping, Wave I climaxed in December 2014 at US$1163. The Wave II correction was steep in price terms making a Zig-Zag pattern, and ended in Jan 2015 at the low price of $152.50 retracing in excess of 78.6% of the advance from low single digits. A little over 2.5 years later, W-III crested just short of $3000. The current correction low has only retraced a small 25%-ish of the advance thus far. The corrective retracement could extend to 61.8% of the advance from the W-II lows without impinging into W-I territory. But by guideline, since W-II was sharp, W-IV should be shallow as the alternation guideline suggests.

Below, I will present 3 scenarios that I believe this correction is more likely to follow. The deeper corrections could only retrace 38.2% rather than the 50% as presented. The Time frame for Wave IV to play out may well extend considerably beyond the 3 month time frame captured within the charts. If we only correct for 3 months after a 2.5 year bull run, it would indeed be not only shallow, but short.

Good luck trading, or be patient if you are a HODler, this too shall pass in the longer run.

Wave III Correction: Barrier Triangle (Medium to High Probability)


Wave III Correction: Flat (Medium to High Probability)


Wave III Correction: Falling Wedge (Low Probability)

2017년 7월 3일

노트

All 3 scenarios listed above are still in play.

Short Term (days to weeks, maybe a month): Bullish break out of the triangle. Targeting (C) and B, the timing and level are unknown.

Mid Term (weeks to months): Bearish after this short Bullish Run. The correction is not over. 1 & 1/2 years of bullish Wave III are not fully corrected by a short shallow correction to A that lasted a few days. Corrective sub-wave B will extract it's toll from the bulls who imagine straight line markets to the moon, and forget the last 1 & 1/2 years included serious corrections. Further, and fundamentally, nothing has been resolved regarding BTC's future. Will it be a UASF under BIP148? That sets an August climax for this run. Will it be a UAHF the large miners including BitMain are advocating for? That could happen before August. Climaxing the short term bull run, as confusion sets in about the future of a larger block size BCU (Bit Coin Unlimited) and BCC (BitCoin Classic) with the originally designed 1MB block size. Will it be another modification like SegWit2X? Too many uncertainties.

Long Term (months to a year): Bullish as Wave V plays out.