Bitcoin (BTC): The Bear Play

2018년 5월 22일

Previously, I examined a Head&Shoulders bottom pattern that was intended to carry prices up to the 9000 area. However, when the price entered the buy zone (~8380), doubts kicked in. It became obvious that bearish triangular patterns are forming in the leading altcoins, namely Ethereum and Ripple. So the trade was put on hold. Not much has happened since then.

Presently I would like to introduce you to the 'Bearish Play' scenario. It is based on a few simple factors:
1. Short-term trend is bearish.
2. The price put in a fresh lower high.
3. People are absolutely fixed on the Triangle wave pattern on the daily chart. It implies lower prices.

The tipping point for me is this H&S pattern. It becomes invalidated below 8173, and its failure would shift the balance of power in favor of the sellers. So this is my short trigger.

It should also be noted that the volatility has reached an extremely low reading. It is even lower than on April 12 when the price surged some 18% within a few hours. We should now be prepared for similar price action.

2018년 5월 22일

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Updated ETH chart:

2018년 5월 22일

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IOTA is on the brink of collapse with a massive H&S top:

2018년 5월 22일

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To my mind, the drop below 8200 is enough to trigger the short setup. So look to sell short BTC on a pullback. These are two resistance level for this purpose:

2018년 5월 22일

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The market is very vulnerable. Consider alternative sell orders on the break of 8170.

2018년 5월 22일

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Wait for hourly close below 8170 to enter.

2018년 5월 23일

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Interim support @7780

2018년 5월 24일

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