So, firstly, when looking at longer timeframes (1D or longer) it is much more useful to look at a logarithmic (log) chart.
One side effect that may help on and emotional level, is that the chart looks much less drastic.
Ok, so when comparing the 2013 ATH of ~$1125 and the retrace down to ~$155, to the 2017 ATH of ~$19,339 down to the $3k levels - there are a few things that are hard to ignore.
- If you plot the timeframes, the first retrace was about 420 days (60 bars on this 1W chart) down to $155 before the market sentiment flipped and an overall uptrend began.
- The percentage decrease from $1125 to $155 is ~86%
- The percentage decrease from $19,339 to $3000 is ~85%
- Assuming the current downtrend lasts roughly the same as the first ATH retrace, we should see a floor at just under $3000.
- RSI divergence from both periods follows roughly the same trend.
The big takeaway here is that, the bigger (higher) prices get - the more drastic it "seems" - but in reality, percentage-wise, BTC has survived a similar retrace.
If BTC cannot hold the ~3k levels, and slips below 25/2600 - then i would maybe be concerned!!
One side effect that may help on and emotional level, is that the chart looks much less drastic.
Ok, so when comparing the 2013 ATH of ~$1125 and the retrace down to ~$155, to the 2017 ATH of ~$19,339 down to the $3k levels - there are a few things that are hard to ignore.
- If you plot the timeframes, the first retrace was about 420 days (60 bars on this 1W chart) down to $155 before the market sentiment flipped and an overall uptrend began.
- The percentage decrease from $1125 to $155 is ~86%
- The percentage decrease from $19,339 to $3000 is ~85%
- Assuming the current downtrend lasts roughly the same as the first ATH retrace, we should see a floor at just under $3000.
- RSI divergence from both periods follows roughly the same trend.
The big takeaway here is that, the bigger (higher) prices get - the more drastic it "seems" - but in reality, percentage-wise, BTC has survived a similar retrace.
If BTC cannot hold the ~3k levels, and slips below 25/2600 - then i would maybe be concerned!!
코멘트:
Nailed bottom!