MacroTradingE 의 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 용 스프링 then SoS

아직은 서플라이의 흔적. SoS 의 부재.
Closed all margin long . holding only spots from 29k.

waiting for Price action to be more clear.

코멘트:

following purple path.

코멘트:

and little adjust, don't see a SoS. we will have a slight pull back towards demand.
expect it to hit 32k ish.

코멘트:

its time for great bear trap setup P

코멘트:

No altcoins yet for me, its time for the KING

코멘트:

Last Point Of Support (LPS): Should have a LACK OF SUPPLY indicated by a RELATIVE NARROWING of the SPREAD and a DECREASE IN THE VOLUME. The comparison is between the up move constituting the (SOS) and the REACTION FOLLOWING it, the (LPS). See the Back-up to the Edge of the Creek (BEC). What if the stock has a possible (SOS) indicated by a widening spread and increasing volume on the move up and is then followed by good supply on possible (LPS) indicated by wide spread and high volume on the reaction? This CANCELS the probability of the fist action being a (SOS) and the stock will probably continue in the trading range for additional testing.

코멘트:

검은 원 = LOCAL SOS
파란색 원 = LPS

볼륨은 줄어들지 않고 있으며 시장에는 여전히 서플라이의 흔적.

코멘트:

but i bet this is new base for next leg up = LPS (last point of support)
Don't see a proof of "distribution"
supply absorbing near local support.

코멘트:

mean reversion :

spot cvd being the lower,
more sells on futs.

코멘트:

i love trap trap ~ and bear is in trouble ~

코멘트:

invalidation is clear. and i still think this is liquidity sweep , get more short in the market then squeeze up .

코멘트:

LONG AND STRONG

코멘트:

We could still sweep the support, but still.. don't see a distribution here.

코멘트:

If the price of a bottom 2 is higher than the price of bottom 1, it’s a higher low and a convincing bounce.
If the prices are the same, it’s still a W-bottom but somewhat weaker.
If the bottom 2 is lower, it might not be the final bottom yet.
With bbands you will look for the 3-push and W-bottom structures relative to the bbands:

If the bottom 2 has lower price than bottom 1 but is farther up from the lower bband than bottom 1, it’s a strongly convincing bottom. The edge lies in the fact that it’s a higher low relatively to the bbands, a bullish structure that a lot of traders will miss.

코멘트:

not confirmed yet, this bigger tf bounce is higher than last low ( bb band 1) ?
what confirms

코멘트:

see the volume profile.

코멘트:

ETH

코멘트:

*wyckoff perspective

코멘트:

there you go.
아주 적당한 타이밍에 새로운 테더 발행 :)
SoS 로 쓰일 총알?

코멘트:

the market cycle ?

코멘트:

stopped out in margin long, just holding spot.
but i still think this goes up.
will scale in margin long gain.

코멘트:

scaled in margin long

코멘트:

spring or test of previous spring

코멘트:

stopped out margin long
holding spots for now

코멘트:

Supply 가 시장에 확인.
빨간 박스에서 supply 가 다시 absorption 되는지 확인

코멘트:

buy back strong after sell down = SoS :)

코멘트:

consolidate , absorb more supply (or could just fly)

코멘트:

지난 저점에서 볼륨 확인후 재차 상승하는 경우의 Long entry.
하지만 현재도 서플라이가 줄어들지 않고 있는 흔적.
급하게 롱을 열기에는 high risk.

코멘트:

do not long the resistance
there is weird supply keep showing up in small tf.
sold spot, open hedge short on ETH at 1344

코멘트:

RED ALERT RED ALERT

코멘트:

market seems very imbalance now. selling 70% of my spots too.
be careful, you can buy back anytime when you see confirmation.
but this volume action is not what i was waiting for to confirm breakout.

코멘트:

we can sure see red path too. but i don't like this volume action here.
조심 조심 또 조심..

코멘트:

I reckon we need to go way lower again to set market
imbalance -> balance..

코멘트:

스프링이라고 확인하였지만 지금 보여주는 것은... 조심

코멘트:

Doesnt seem to sustainable.. will wait for entry or see if it reclain

코멘트:

yeah.. still its a little short squeeze in action rather than SoS

코멘트:

i am waiting one more day to see if it reclaim the creek, shows some strength.
before that scaling in short in small position.

코멘트:

현재의 TR 이 시작될때는 볼륨을 기반으로 재축적이라고 생각했지만
supply , absorption 을 고려할때 한번 더 low 를 테스트 할 것 이라고 생각합니다.
그리고 그 저점은 이전 저점보다 더 많은 유동성을 향해 갈 것이고
그 저점 도달시 빠른 속도로 반등할 것 (1-2일) 이라고 생각합니다.