With another SELOFF of 10%, BTC seems to weaken even further and could potentially confirm the start of a NEW BEAR Cycle.
On this illustration, we can identify clearly 5-wave UP since the low of December 2018.
Indeed, the BULLISH structure for a potential extended wave 5 has been broken (overlap of the last SWING with 53k TOP (that could have been a WAVE 1).
In addition to that, I've introduced to you the Fib-Trend based line. This tool could be helpful to anticipate potential DURATION of cycles. I mainly use it on HIGHER TIME FRAMES.
A cycle DURATION is based on FUNDAMENTALS / ECONOMICS / PANDEMIC? and cannot be predicted with accuracy. This is why we could get a SHORT BEAR Cycle that goes to 61.8% (mid 2022) or a longer one that goes to 161.8%.
I'm betting on a SHORTER DURATION for the incoming BEAR market that would end between 61.8% and 100%.
Simply because the infrastructure around CRYPTO/BITCOIN is much stronger than the previous BEAR market (at least at the time of writing) and also because of the LAW OF ALTERNATION where the previous BEAR CYCLE seemed to have been complex and lasted quite long.
If this CYCLE is confirmed, we should expect the correction to last LONGER and be BIGGER than the 2 previous corrections of the LOWER DEGREE. It means that we should visit 30k - 25k region and that the correction should last until July 2022 minimum.
I will cover an alternative scenario, where the BULLS cycle is still intact but where 30k-25k region will be revisited inevitably.
On this illustration, we can identify clearly 5-wave UP since the low of December 2018.
Indeed, the BULLISH structure for a potential extended wave 5 has been broken (overlap of the last SWING with 53k TOP (that could have been a WAVE 1).
In addition to that, I've introduced to you the Fib-Trend based line. This tool could be helpful to anticipate potential DURATION of cycles. I mainly use it on HIGHER TIME FRAMES.
A cycle DURATION is based on FUNDAMENTALS / ECONOMICS / PANDEMIC? and cannot be predicted with accuracy. This is why we could get a SHORT BEAR Cycle that goes to 61.8% (mid 2022) or a longer one that goes to 161.8%.
I'm betting on a SHORTER DURATION for the incoming BEAR market that would end between 61.8% and 100%.
Simply because the infrastructure around CRYPTO/BITCOIN is much stronger than the previous BEAR market (at least at the time of writing) and also because of the LAW OF ALTERNATION where the previous BEAR CYCLE seemed to have been complex and lasted quite long.
If this CYCLE is confirmed, we should expect the correction to last LONGER and be BIGGER than the 2 previous corrections of the LOWER DEGREE. It means that we should visit 30k - 25k region and that the correction should last until July 2022 minimum.
I will cover an alternative scenario, where the BULLS cycle is still intact but where 30k-25k region will be revisited inevitably.