9/25 Altcoins and BTC Await Next Moves

9월 26일

Overview:
SPY displayed a minor decline yesterday, forming a small red candle while remaining near the upper boundary of its current trading range. This pullback is largely attributed to the underperformance of the oil and gas sector, which saw significant declines. Despite this, there are no clear indications of bearish momentum building up at this stage.
QQQ closed with a green candle, successfully surpassing the previous high set on August 22nd. This breakout signals bullish momentum and a positive outlook for the tech-heavy index.

BTC TA:
W: Bitcoin is holding above the Bollinger Bands' moving average but remains below the critical weekly resistance level of $64 k. This positioning reflects a neutral to slightly bearish outlook.
D: The daily chart reveals why the weekly candle only has a wick above $64 k. Unfortunately, Bitcoin failed to maintain its support line and is now trading below it. If further correction occurs, the target is around 60.3k, where the highest volume of trading activity has been observed.
4h: Analyzing the recent bull run from September 6th, the Volume Range Volume Profile (VRVP) point of control aligns closely with the current price level, indicating significant trading activity here. A breakout could lead to either a drop to 43k or a surge to 80k. Keep an eye on the bearish MACD line divergence, which, although present, needs confirmation on the 1-hour timeframe.
1h: The previously observed divergence has dissipated, and the market is now range trading, indicating a neutral outlook.

Altcoins Relative to BTC:
Most major altcoins peaked 2-3 days ago and are now waiting for Bitcoin’s next move to decide their direction.

Bull Case:
As long as Bitcoin maintains its support level without breaking down, there's an increased likelihood of a gradual rise. Current market behavior suggests we are in an accumulation phase, which could precede a strong upward movement.

Bear Case:
We might be experiencing the peak of a bull trap. Economic indicators are not favorable, and there is a risk that large holders (whales) may begin selling off their positions.

Fear and Greed Index:
The index has dropped slightly to 48.34 from yesterday's 52.83, indicating a slight shift towards fear in the market.

Prediction and Opportunities:
On weekly and 4-hour charts, there are divergences in major altcoins, presenting potential opportunities. SOL successfully broke through its $144 resistance level, and ETH did the same with its $2,550 support, establishing these as new support levels. AR also confirmed its $21.73 support level. These setups could offer profitable trading opportunities if confirmed by further price action.

Correction Notice:
In yesterday's analysis, we incorrectly stated that BlackRock had been on the sidelines with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. New data reveals the opposite: BlackRock made significant purchases of $98.9 m and $184 m worth of BTC on consecutive days, along with a $59.3 m purchase of ETH. While Fidelity customers showed reduced interest, with some selling BTC, BlackRock’s aggressive buying suggests divergent strategies among major players. This highlights the complexities of using ETF flows as a metric, as there is no clear way to track "smart money" in the crypto space. It’s intriguing to observe the varying purchase patterns between BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity.