Short term day traders should observe the rectangle range we've been trading in since the 24th, after the sudden drop. I have drawn the bear flag that has setup this pattern. Now, after 3 touches on bottom and 2 on top, it seems we have a partial rise. That is good news for the bears as this typically indicates a breakout of the pattern is impending. As part of the bear flag, this would give us a Target of 3435, which correlates with the support from December 18th.
My previous charts have shown what appeared to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. At this point at 3750, we are very close to the bottom valley of the right shoulder I have drawn. (see pic below). So if the bear flag is the dominant pattern here (and since we are still in the bear market, that would be true), this would end up invalidating the Inverse Head and Shoulders.
However, to give the Bulls some hope, this could still be a part of the Elliott Wave correction ABC waves from another chart I made (pic below). Albeit, if the price does drop to the 3434 level, that is quite a bit deeper correction than originally estimated, but still altogether possible, as long as it doesn't completely retrace to the original low of 3135.
In summary, there are 3 possibilites:
1) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then continue trending downward from there.
2) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then the Elliott Wave retrace ends, and we begin Wave 3 bull impulse upward
3) We don't breakout of the bear flag, the retrace and the Higher Low is already printed, and we complete the Inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a future breakout upward.
I'd give a 60% chance of option 1 at this point. 20% for option 2 and 20% for option 3. Be careful!
See previous analyses and pics below.
Have a Great Day!
My previous charts have shown what appeared to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. At this point at 3750, we are very close to the bottom valley of the right shoulder I have drawn. (see pic below). So if the bear flag is the dominant pattern here (and since we are still in the bear market, that would be true), this would end up invalidating the Inverse Head and Shoulders.
However, to give the Bulls some hope, this could still be a part of the Elliott Wave correction ABC waves from another chart I made (pic below). Albeit, if the price does drop to the 3434 level, that is quite a bit deeper correction than originally estimated, but still altogether possible, as long as it doesn't completely retrace to the original low of 3135.
In summary, there are 3 possibilites:
1) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then continue trending downward from there.
2) Bear Flag takes us down to 3435, and then the Elliott Wave retrace ends, and we begin Wave 3 bull impulse upward
3) We don't breakout of the bear flag, the retrace and the Higher Low is already printed, and we complete the Inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a future breakout upward.
I'd give a 60% chance of option 1 at this point. 20% for option 2 and 20% for option 3. Be careful!
See previous analyses and pics below.
Have a Great Day!
코멘트:
Head and Shoulders Pattern from previous analysis:
코멘트:
Elliott Wave Count, could indicate a bounce from this level, or from the 3435 level:
코멘트:
There it goes!
