Cryptomarkets outlook for Q1 2024
Hello fellow traders,
hope everyone is doing well.
In this post I try to explain What & Why is expected from Cryptomarket in Q1 2024.
This idea is based on micro and macro economy outlook, in which the most important part is Interest Rate of FED as a moving tool. Aswell, note that current market environment in which Interest Rates was elevated occured only ONE TIME in history of this market if we count for whole Collective Market.
To not make this post unnecessarily long, I make it clear in points.
-- Chart is composed from BITCOIN / USINTR(orange) / TOTAL3(blue) / Cardano(yellow) --
1. - Idea of this Cryptomarket review/prediction is based on (*pic.1). Which is ONLY TIME in History of Cryptomarket when there was Interest Rates Hikes and Cuts.
Important note: We need to take into consideration that current market micro and macro conditions are different, due to Highier Inflation which resulted into Highier Interest Rates. So I do not expect cutting back to 0 in first major cutting cycle.
2. - Considering previous, I expect Cryptomarket could behave in Q1 of 2024 at similar fashion then it did in 2019. Main focus should stay on BITCOIN, altcoin is used as guidance in this case.
3. - So, we can see that in 2019 market not found its TOP, until FED Started cutting Rates. Which means, whole time they Hold on Pause market was climbing highier, even if it was elevated for prolonged period of time without any major pullbacks.
So, my Base Expectation is market can still keep going highier. With occasional time to time not so significant price pullbacks (20-30% should be considered normal in this asset), UNTIL FED decide to START cutting rates.
4. - Which could possibly take further in Q2, if they do not decide to Cut at March meeting.
Note, I do not expect them to Cut at 31st. January meeting.
5. - This idea will be considered "INVALID" in a case where FED decide to CUT sooner then expected, due to terrible earning reports or any other Major disruption factor in normal economy process.
6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didnt Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when correct time come - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found.
*reference picture 1. -
TLDR - "Cryptomarkets should stay in bullish sentiment with elevated price action until FED start cutting Interest Rates."
Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpfull in futher market navigating.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
hope everyone is doing well.
In this post I try to explain What & Why is expected from Cryptomarket in Q1 2024.
This idea is based on micro and macro economy outlook, in which the most important part is Interest Rate of FED as a moving tool. Aswell, note that current market environment in which Interest Rates was elevated occured only ONE TIME in history of this market if we count for whole Collective Market.
To not make this post unnecessarily long, I make it clear in points.
-- Chart is composed from BITCOIN / USINTR(orange) / TOTAL3(blue) / Cardano(yellow) --
1. - Idea of this Cryptomarket review/prediction is based on (*pic.1). Which is ONLY TIME in History of Cryptomarket when there was Interest Rates Hikes and Cuts.
Important note: We need to take into consideration that current market micro and macro conditions are different, due to Highier Inflation which resulted into Highier Interest Rates. So I do not expect cutting back to 0 in first major cutting cycle.
2. - Considering previous, I expect Cryptomarket could behave in Q1 of 2024 at similar fashion then it did in 2019. Main focus should stay on BITCOIN, altcoin is used as guidance in this case.
3. - So, we can see that in 2019 market not found its TOP, until FED Started cutting Rates. Which means, whole time they Hold on Pause market was climbing highier, even if it was elevated for prolonged period of time without any major pullbacks.
So, my Base Expectation is market can still keep going highier. With occasional time to time not so significant price pullbacks (20-30% should be considered normal in this asset), UNTIL FED decide to START cutting rates.
4. - Which could possibly take further in Q2, if they do not decide to Cut at March meeting.
Note, I do not expect them to Cut at 31st. January meeting.
5. - This idea will be considered "INVALID" in a case where FED decide to CUT sooner then expected, due to terrible earning reports or any other Major disruption factor in normal economy process.
6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didnt Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when correct time come - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found.
*reference picture 1. -
TLDR - "Cryptomarkets should stay in bullish sentiment with elevated price action until FED start cutting Interest Rates."
Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpfull in futher market navigating.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
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