BTC: The path out of the woods

Zooming out on the daily shows an interesting collision of channels. There's a long term trend since at least early 2021, and the shorter range trend since BTC began to move down. This is all coming to a head, and the wiggle room for BTC to maintain its status quo is running out mid to late February.

Support: 34.5 is now the bottom of the broad channel. I consider that the red zone, we might wick below as we did earlier, but a daily candle closing below this level would mean trouble.

Resistance: 40k. That's the big one. The combination of being the resistance line of our current down channel , and the psychological level of that big round number make it a target to be reckoned with. If we break 40k, we break the downtrend. If we get a daily (and preferably weekly) close above 40k, it's time to bring out the popcorn maker again.

Of course there's a lot of external factors pushing the king around these days, not the least of which being it's irritating tenancy lately to move with the traditional market. War on the brink in Ukraine, an uncertain regulatory environment, and crypto getting more and more political. It seems there's no shortage of black swans circling overhead. The best we can hope for right now is that they keep flying and bitcoin is allowed to follow its natural buoyancy (which has always been up over time).