BITCOIN 2022 : One Potential Bullish Scenario
UDPATE 18.12.2021
Currently, we are around 46k-47k $ and we can easily identify a strong support at 40k $.
This level has to hold if we want to keep believing in the continuation of the bull market for 2022, and maybe beyond.
If we finally break to the downside and close below 40k, we will still have the 30k$ level to watch carefully, but it would not look good even for a middle-term perspective.
However, many indicators are slowly showing that we are on our way to recover. The bottom at 42k$ may already be in. Why ?
- Spreads are slowly turning negatives on majors exchanges
- The current correction is around 40%, which is historically speaking a move that you can consider as already "high" and "enough" if you are not a day trader who is trying to perfectly time the bottom.
- Bonds which are going to turn bearish regarding what FED has announced, is a very bullish news for BTC (historically when bonds are correcting, BTC is doing a nice move to the upside)
- Inflation which is already here is going to accelerate the whole process.
- 40k$ is a very strong support and closing below would be very unlikely regarding probabilities, stats, and what has happened in the past (once again, nothing 100% sure ;)).
- Institutions, billionaires & biggest companies are already in, and most likely many others will join.
- We are currently facing extreme fear in the market
Maybe a last shake out at a close to 40k$ price could occur on short term, so the only thing I would personally recommend is not doing leverage trading, to avoid extravagant wicks which are liquidating people every time.
So let's stay realistic (In this potential situation, I could see a bullish scenario with a top for 2022) but optimistic (Not expecting a 200k$, or 300k$ BITCOIN for the top or a 100k$ price in 3 weeks).
As usual, anything could happen. But a scenario with a move between 100k$-150k$ area could still potentially occur during 2022 (maybe mid 2022).
If we consider what has happened in the past to prevent what could happen in the future, nothing is certain, but we can calculate how this scenario could possibly happen.
If we assume that we're still in a bull market (which I'm privileging since we're not below 40k$), a cycle top could potentially occur next year, with a range between 100k$ to 150k$.
It would put the total market cap for BITCOIN between 2 to 3 Trillions, which would be a 2x to 3x move from where we are today. Not so crazy for crypto.
First, we need to print W's on daily and weekly time frames, to fully recover from the recent correction and get back above the bull market support. Then, we could most likely see a nice cup and handle pattern that would help to break the 70k$ resistance. If we manage to get close to 100k$, the final mania phase could happen and put the price at insane levels, because of media, YouTubers & other influencers claiming a 200k$ to 1Million$ BITCOIN price. Of course, in this scenario, it would not go higher than 150k$.
It seems optimistic, very hard for the new comers but pretty realistic to me. Do not forget it's only my personal point of view. I'm watching this market since 2014 and I have been surprised in good ways so many times as all my expectation have always been outpaced. So time will tell but I don't think we are already on our way to a 2-4 years bear market.
I think there is a decent chance we will see a another big rally which could stop in the red log curve, before that. It would "only" represent a x6,25 move from the previous high (which was at 20k$ in 2017), which is confirming the logic of diminishing return cycles after cycles, as this asset is still growing like crazy and is becoming slowly but surely a serious actor. It's also pretty logical if volatility is decreasing with time as its harder to still see 50-500% moves to the upside/downside on a short period, on an asset which could have in a near future a market cap of few trillions : We are already around 1 trillion, and it took more than 10 years to reach that, this is also something we need to remind ourselves when people are expecting very unlikely numbers for this cycle.
After a potential top in 2022, a correction around 65-85 % could still potentially occur right after, if history is repeating.
It could bring us back to the 20k$-40k$ range, which could also be in a nice zone to re-accumulate.
Once again, unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball, so we are all going to watch carefully what direction the market will take in few weeks/months, to see if this scenario will stay on the card.
Disclaimers :
Why these targets ? Because I'm only using datas, stats, probabilities & logarithmic curves, to appreciate the potential and the risk level of holding a coin (or selling when its heating up). I also love to stay cold and realistic (even if I’m optimistic) in my projections and be surprised in the good way.
It's not a financial advise. This is not a « strong TA » but my point of view regarding my short but respectable experience in Crypto (since 2014). This chart is pretty simple and its just here to make potential projections, nothing more, so DYOR ALWAYS. Now its said, so let's see if this chart ages well, at least just for fun ;)
Currently, we are around 46k-47k $ and we can easily identify a strong support at 40k $.
This level has to hold if we want to keep believing in the continuation of the bull market for 2022, and maybe beyond.
If we finally break to the downside and close below 40k, we will still have the 30k$ level to watch carefully, but it would not look good even for a middle-term perspective.
However, many indicators are slowly showing that we are on our way to recover. The bottom at 42k$ may already be in. Why ?
- Spreads are slowly turning negatives on majors exchanges
- The current correction is around 40%, which is historically speaking a move that you can consider as already "high" and "enough" if you are not a day trader who is trying to perfectly time the bottom.
- Bonds which are going to turn bearish regarding what FED has announced, is a very bullish news for BTC (historically when bonds are correcting, BTC is doing a nice move to the upside)
- Inflation which is already here is going to accelerate the whole process.
- 40k$ is a very strong support and closing below would be very unlikely regarding probabilities, stats, and what has happened in the past (once again, nothing 100% sure ;)).
- Institutions, billionaires & biggest companies are already in, and most likely many others will join.
- We are currently facing extreme fear in the market
Maybe a last shake out at a close to 40k$ price could occur on short term, so the only thing I would personally recommend is not doing leverage trading, to avoid extravagant wicks which are liquidating people every time.
So let's stay realistic (In this potential situation, I could see a bullish scenario with a top for 2022) but optimistic (Not expecting a 200k$, or 300k$ BITCOIN for the top or a 100k$ price in 3 weeks).
As usual, anything could happen. But a scenario with a move between 100k$-150k$ area could still potentially occur during 2022 (maybe mid 2022).
If we consider what has happened in the past to prevent what could happen in the future, nothing is certain, but we can calculate how this scenario could possibly happen.
If we assume that we're still in a bull market (which I'm privileging since we're not below 40k$), a cycle top could potentially occur next year, with a range between 100k$ to 150k$.
It would put the total market cap for BITCOIN between 2 to 3 Trillions, which would be a 2x to 3x move from where we are today. Not so crazy for crypto.
First, we need to print W's on daily and weekly time frames, to fully recover from the recent correction and get back above the bull market support. Then, we could most likely see a nice cup and handle pattern that would help to break the 70k$ resistance. If we manage to get close to 100k$, the final mania phase could happen and put the price at insane levels, because of media, YouTubers & other influencers claiming a 200k$ to 1Million$ BITCOIN price. Of course, in this scenario, it would not go higher than 150k$.
It seems optimistic, very hard for the new comers but pretty realistic to me. Do not forget it's only my personal point of view. I'm watching this market since 2014 and I have been surprised in good ways so many times as all my expectation have always been outpaced. So time will tell but I don't think we are already on our way to a 2-4 years bear market.
I think there is a decent chance we will see a another big rally which could stop in the red log curve, before that. It would "only" represent a x6,25 move from the previous high (which was at 20k$ in 2017), which is confirming the logic of diminishing return cycles after cycles, as this asset is still growing like crazy and is becoming slowly but surely a serious actor. It's also pretty logical if volatility is decreasing with time as its harder to still see 50-500% moves to the upside/downside on a short period, on an asset which could have in a near future a market cap of few trillions : We are already around 1 trillion, and it took more than 10 years to reach that, this is also something we need to remind ourselves when people are expecting very unlikely numbers for this cycle.
After a potential top in 2022, a correction around 65-85 % could still potentially occur right after, if history is repeating.
It could bring us back to the 20k$-40k$ range, which could also be in a nice zone to re-accumulate.
Once again, unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball, so we are all going to watch carefully what direction the market will take in few weeks/months, to see if this scenario will stay on the card.
Disclaimers :
Why these targets ? Because I'm only using datas, stats, probabilities & logarithmic curves, to appreciate the potential and the risk level of holding a coin (or selling when its heating up). I also love to stay cold and realistic (even if I’m optimistic) in my projections and be surprised in the good way.
It's not a financial advise. This is not a « strong TA » but my point of view regarding my short but respectable experience in Crypto (since 2014). This chart is pretty simple and its just here to make potential projections, nothing more, so DYOR ALWAYS. Now its said, so let's see if this chart ages well, at least just for fun ;)
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