롱

Bitcoin - The trend turns neutral

Over the past month, Bitcoin lost much of its bearish momentum; indeed, it became stuck within the wide range, oscillating from one side to another. Because of the trend turning neutral we were forced to abandon our price targets for the 2nd time. Currently, we stay out of the market and decide to observe it for a while before running to new conclusions. However, we have to note that fundamental bearish factors have not changed. The prospect of higher interest rates, economic tightening, and global crisis continue to threaten the cryptocurrency market. Because of that, we still think there is a high likelihood for BTCUSD to make a new low in 2022. Although, despite that, we think the general stock market and cryptocurrency sector might be positioning themselves for the significant bear market rally. At the moment, the upside potential for BTCUSD is near 24 000 USD, which coincides with the 50-day SMA. Meanwhile, the downside potential for BTCUSD in 2022 is near its recent lows.

Illustration 1.01

Two moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, still reflect the bearish trend. However, the 20-day SMA started to move sideways recently, hinting at loss of momentum and trend neutrality.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
Stochastic is neutral. MACD and RSI are bullish. DM+ and DM- are neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.

Illustration 1.02

Two moving averages, 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA, continue to suggest the presence of the bearish trend. However, the daily time frame hints at the trend turning neutral (in short-term/medium-term). Additionally, the cool-off in selling pressure is indicated by low volume.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish; however, it is less bearish than a week ago.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.