Wave IV is about to start working on its downward C wave.
Estimate #1: Wave A went down from 11299 to 10159 = 1140. Wave B fought back to 11150, but is now back at the ceiling (upper bold pink line) connecting the peaks of 12/17, 1/5, and 1/6. RSI is high, ready for a drop. If wave C matches A's 1140, that would bring us down to 10010.
Estimate #2: Wave A took about 7 hours. If wave C does the same, and starts about now that would put us around 7 hours from now (5pm ET). That would hit our support line (orange) from the bottoms on 2/6, 2/11 (twice), 2/13 (twice) at around 9900. If it takes twice as long, and ends around midnight tonight (ET), that would put us around 10k.
Estimate #3: Lastly, we have our fib retracement. 9982 is our 38.2% level. Since wave II only retraced 38.2%, I would expect a larger drop out of wave IV (down to 9575 or 9168). Nevertheless, that gives us another support around our drop zone of 9900-10000.
Also remember that wave IV can't drop below wave I, putting out absolute bottom at 9090. If we go lower than that, the above count is wrong - in this case, the top of wave 3 of III was probably actually the end of wave III, the top of wave III is actually our wave V, and we're headed further down in a larger correction.
Moving forward with the primary count laid out: To complete our larger Elliott wave, wave V would obviously have to take us above wave III. A fib extension matching wave I would put V around 13127, which is hopefully more than enough of a push to get us over the resistance (upper bold pink line) and put us solidly in a bull market again.
Disclaimer: I do this for fun. Don't take anything here as financial advice.
Estimate #1: Wave A went down from 11299 to 10159 = 1140. Wave B fought back to 11150, but is now back at the ceiling (upper bold pink line) connecting the peaks of 12/17, 1/5, and 1/6. RSI is high, ready for a drop. If wave C matches A's 1140, that would bring us down to 10010.
Estimate #2: Wave A took about 7 hours. If wave C does the same, and starts about now that would put us around 7 hours from now (5pm ET). That would hit our support line (orange) from the bottoms on 2/6, 2/11 (twice), 2/13 (twice) at around 9900. If it takes twice as long, and ends around midnight tonight (ET), that would put us around 10k.
Estimate #3: Lastly, we have our fib retracement. 9982 is our 38.2% level. Since wave II only retraced 38.2%, I would expect a larger drop out of wave IV (down to 9575 or 9168). Nevertheless, that gives us another support around our drop zone of 9900-10000.
Also remember that wave IV can't drop below wave I, putting out absolute bottom at 9090. If we go lower than that, the above count is wrong - in this case, the top of wave 3 of III was probably actually the end of wave III, the top of wave III is actually our wave V, and we're headed further down in a larger correction.
Moving forward with the primary count laid out: To complete our larger Elliott wave, wave V would obviously have to take us above wave III. A fib extension matching wave I would put V around 13127, which is hopefully more than enough of a push to get us over the resistance (upper bold pink line) and put us solidly in a bull market again.
Disclaimer: I do this for fun. Don't take anything here as financial advice.