$BTCUSD might be sideways until Feb 26th according to weekly data, between March 2nd and 15th according to biweekly charts.
Note the inside trendline support, it should hold at all costs. By March 1st, we shouldn't go much lower than 8893 worst case.
During March 2nd-15th, the high of the period should be above 9142.
Knowing this doesn't tell us how low it may go in this bar, but it should either close over 9142 or not fall sub 9142 for the next bar high to be above support. Another thing, notice that the resistance line was breached, we have had 1 high above the red line already. The same line was breached during mid March 2016, leading to a steady trend only after this. Perhaps we get a similar pattern, sideways for longer then up steadily. Since the bimonthly trend is up, there is a low risk long term buy zone where we could add or reload longs, between 8834 and 8001. Stop for it would be 7168. Market should never go back below 6450.
I would be long using covered calls, or look into hedging partially, or keeping some cash to add if we dip. Wouldn't want to be long on margin yet.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Note the inside trendline support, it should hold at all costs. By March 1st, we shouldn't go much lower than 8893 worst case.
During March 2nd-15th, the high of the period should be above 9142.
Knowing this doesn't tell us how low it may go in this bar, but it should either close over 9142 or not fall sub 9142 for the next bar high to be above support. Another thing, notice that the resistance line was breached, we have had 1 high above the red line already. The same line was breached during mid March 2016, leading to a steady trend only after this. Perhaps we get a similar pattern, sideways for longer then up steadily. Since the bimonthly trend is up, there is a low risk long term buy zone where we could add or reload longs, between 8834 and 8001. Stop for it would be 7168. Market should never go back below 6450.
I would be long using covered calls, or look into hedging partially, or keeping some cash to add if we dip. Wouldn't want to be long on margin yet.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
코멘트:
My guess is we will see a retrace during March, since EVERY time the 2-Month timeframe bars formed a 'Range Expansion' pattern since inception, #BTCUSD retraced in the next period, on average by 29%. But, it never erases the start of the upside surge in the bar before, unless it's a market turn in the long term. Notice the yellow vertical lines, all are the times we get a retrace during a bullish trend, it is always a higher low than the bar before, and higher than previous bar opening price. The red vertical lines are market tops, where the next bar does wipe out the start of the previous bar's move. The green bars are market bottoms, after prices accelerate into the bottom when everyone gives up and sells, but then during the next period, price moves higher than the start of that bearish surge:
Very interesting and reliable pattern in #Bitcoin.
주문취소됨:
The sideways signal failed, downside is less likely as long as today's advance holds.
If volume grows during the day and prices stay near the highs and don't erase today's opening price again, the chart points to 11185.24 by March 5th:
This would ignite a short squeeze probably. Let's see how it goes. If we don't risk, we won't earn.
If volume grows during the day and prices stay near the highs and don't erase today's opening price again, the chart points to 11185.24 by March 5th:
코멘트:
It was a fake out, after CME futures opened, prices dropped under the last daily low. Apparently shorts were covered, during the weekend, causing the spike, which seemed to be a bullish signal.
Currently, there's a chance of getting a downtrend signal going until March 6th.
Target is 8969, at least, whilst below 9682.
Target is 8969, at least, whilst below 9682.
코멘트:
It may have bottomed already:
I was hedged from 9260 to 9190 or so. I didn't want to risk being caught short if it bounced quickly (which it is doing now, after hitting support zone at 9075-9015)
I was hedged from 9260 to 9190 or so. I didn't want to risk being caught short if it bounced quickly (which it is doing now, after hitting support zone at 9075-9015)
매매 수동청산:
I've changed my mind a bit regarding BTC. I suspect market might be at the mercy of CME traders, so permanently sideways like FX or Gold after 2011. I think it might be better to trade shorter term moves or to do arbitrage or lending for income since yields in crypto are huge. Easily 17-24% per year.
코멘트:
A few key factors: price action analysis using Time@mode logic shows weekly timeframe is in control, not 2M anymore. Most trend signals in the weekly are bearish signals, distribution takes longer, at the same price level before quick breaks to the downside, that last the SAME time as the mode duration.
They then rebound for the same amount of time, as per T@M rules.
Price didn't make a higher high above recent resistance zone, it merely retested the downtrend mode in the weekly (and right on time) to then fall rapidly.
Tone Vays turned bullish
Dumb money bought the last part of the uptrend using Square cash app (also longs at finex increased dramatically, when before people were selling into the rally from 6425)
MTV Crypto Expert
Simpsons episode explaining Bitcoin
Stock to flow guy in denial
Golden cross dumb money buyers got rekt, then they were all going on about how it's normal to dump after the signal, that it was alright since it used to pamp after such ocurrences (as if the past always repeats the same...they forgot one thing, they now swim with sharks from CME).
Range expansion down from the mode, after an 11 week climb to retest the level.
See chart:
They then rebound for the same amount of time, as per T@M rules.
Price didn't make a higher high above recent resistance zone, it merely retested the downtrend mode in the weekly (and right on time) to then fall rapidly.
Tone Vays turned bullish
Dumb money bought the last part of the uptrend using Square cash app (also longs at finex increased dramatically, when before people were selling into the rally from 6425)
MTV Crypto Expert
Simpsons episode explaining Bitcoin
Stock to flow guy in denial
Golden cross dumb money buyers got rekt, then they were all going on about how it's normal to dump after the signal, that it was alright since it used to pamp after such ocurrences (as if the past always repeats the same...they forgot one thing, they now swim with sharks from CME).
Range expansion down from the mode, after an 11 week climb to retest the level.
See chart:
