We all look at charts, hoping we can REALLY predict the next move. We get so good at it that indeed the number of our successful trades increase over time. So we start zooming in, our strategies get more sophisticated and everything goes according to plan... we differ from reality focusing on 4H, 12H or 1D charts.
I can hear a lot of bulls recently aiming for new 100k, people talking about the return of alt season, others hoping to make a quick buck, no trading necessary. But let's stop for a bit here.
Firstly there is no similarity on the 2 sets of monthly candles highlighted in yellow. Those from 2016 present bullish scenario, the one that is closing today convinces me, we are going to see another retracement.
Secondly. This bull run was explosive, many missed opportunity and now there's a lot of educated and non-educated people who don't know what to do. Confusion isn't the right feed for bulls.
If you bought at 3500 - now you would be thinking - I better sell and wait for what happens (it's normal - it's just emotions). Those who are hodlers will hodl - in fact, I believe that was a big reason why the price of Bitcoin increased so dramatically over the last 10 years. If you consider that some decided to own at least one Bitcoin and never sell it... here comes a time where this easy strategy isn't as easy anymore. Now you have traders from very different demographics, trying to make sense out of all this mess (that is healthy and reasonable). If you consider however that you own 10k worth of bitcoin and you're an average individual who works 09:00-17:00, making average wage - trust me, you won't hodl while value drops below 61.8 Fibonacci...
So where do I go with this?
To me we should first see confirmation of the blue line ... it didn't happen. And I know - there's 21 weekly EMA, There's 100 and 200 daily, there's Stoch, RSI, Elliot Waves and whatever other tools you want to look at - but realistically nearly everyone by now knows or have heard about Bitcoin, but we're not ready yet for global adoption. It will take significantly more time than anybody expects to see the new ATH.
Surely not everyone can accept my point of view, hence I'm glad we all agree on the fact we are actually speculating, but I'll tell you one thing though: I might miss out on next BTC bull run - sure there are other places to make money, but if this stuff drops to where it should according to my simple drafting, the 2% of my portfolio will be waiting for the right buy... and than I HODL - patience, that's all.
I can hear a lot of bulls recently aiming for new 100k, people talking about the return of alt season, others hoping to make a quick buck, no trading necessary. But let's stop for a bit here.
Firstly there is no similarity on the 2 sets of monthly candles highlighted in yellow. Those from 2016 present bullish scenario, the one that is closing today convinces me, we are going to see another retracement.
Secondly. This bull run was explosive, many missed opportunity and now there's a lot of educated and non-educated people who don't know what to do. Confusion isn't the right feed for bulls.
If you bought at 3500 - now you would be thinking - I better sell and wait for what happens (it's normal - it's just emotions). Those who are hodlers will hodl - in fact, I believe that was a big reason why the price of Bitcoin increased so dramatically over the last 10 years. If you consider that some decided to own at least one Bitcoin and never sell it... here comes a time where this easy strategy isn't as easy anymore. Now you have traders from very different demographics, trying to make sense out of all this mess (that is healthy and reasonable). If you consider however that you own 10k worth of bitcoin and you're an average individual who works 09:00-17:00, making average wage - trust me, you won't hodl while value drops below 61.8 Fibonacci...
So where do I go with this?
To me we should first see confirmation of the blue line ... it didn't happen. And I know - there's 21 weekly EMA, There's 100 and 200 daily, there's Stoch, RSI, Elliot Waves and whatever other tools you want to look at - but realistically nearly everyone by now knows or have heard about Bitcoin, but we're not ready yet for global adoption. It will take significantly more time than anybody expects to see the new ATH.
Surely not everyone can accept my point of view, hence I'm glad we all agree on the fact we are actually speculating, but I'll tell you one thing though: I might miss out on next BTC bull run - sure there are other places to make money, but if this stuff drops to where it should according to my simple drafting, the 2% of my portfolio will be waiting for the right buy... and than I HODL - patience, that's all.
