Current breakout does not mean correction is over; 13.5 possible
Yes, this could be the break out of a triangle and be the sign of a recovery back to 13.5, but that does not mean we are 'out of the woods' just yet. There is still room (some would say 'hope') for a final correction. This is not because I or others are 'haters' or want to buy BTC cheap but because a deeper correction (or completion of the pattern) would be better for the long term future of the BTC price.
Why? It would remove the people out of the market who are still trying to recoup some losses (late buyers) and some people who are long time holders but who have lost faith. It might also attract new, large investors, who use analysis and reasoning to determine their best entry moment. They do not have FOMO, they have models, calculators and computers. And rulers. Simple rulers.
I expect that we might rise to 13.5 creating the perfect point where retail investors are getting hungry again and larger investors will sell off one more time, to buy back between 9 and 10. It might come a bit sooner at 12.8 or (unlikely) later, but it will come. Simply because there is no straight line growth. When there is, like between 8 and 19.8 (Nov 25th - Dec 17th), with very few meaningful corrections, the market becomes overheated and a severe correction is certain to happen. That is why I hope we will follow a more natural growth pattern this time.
I also expect that we will see more hefty corrections all the way up 19, as many retail investors (small and large) are still holding bags bought at higher levels and will be glad to sell these and leave the crypto market altogether.
Now, nothing is guaranteed of course and as some will point out, TA is not a science and nobody can predict the unpredictable. So, your trades are your own and this is not advice to buy or sell. Be careful trading on weekends.
Why? It would remove the people out of the market who are still trying to recoup some losses (late buyers) and some people who are long time holders but who have lost faith. It might also attract new, large investors, who use analysis and reasoning to determine their best entry moment. They do not have FOMO, they have models, calculators and computers. And rulers. Simple rulers.
I expect that we might rise to 13.5 creating the perfect point where retail investors are getting hungry again and larger investors will sell off one more time, to buy back between 9 and 10. It might come a bit sooner at 12.8 or (unlikely) later, but it will come. Simply because there is no straight line growth. When there is, like between 8 and 19.8 (Nov 25th - Dec 17th), with very few meaningful corrections, the market becomes overheated and a severe correction is certain to happen. That is why I hope we will follow a more natural growth pattern this time.
I also expect that we will see more hefty corrections all the way up 19, as many retail investors (small and large) are still holding bags bought at higher levels and will be glad to sell these and leave the crypto market altogether.
Now, nothing is guaranteed of course and as some will point out, TA is not a science and nobody can predict the unpredictable. So, your trades are your own and this is not advice to buy or sell. Be careful trading on weekends.
코멘트:
PS: This idea is a slightly updated zoom of the larger 2018 view I published earlier:
