#2 Danger BTC is falling

11월 26일

Bearish Outlook and Macro Perspective

As in my previous remarks, I signaled an unstable #100k level, which has developed into a failure even to touch this mark. This reflects a loosening in bullish momentum, as many holders and investors are now taking profits. It's important to remember that there are also long-term holders (over 5 years) who experienced losses of up to #77% since November 2021. These holders might now be exiting their positions, adding selling pressure to the market.

Moreover, with speculation surrounding Trump's actions post-20 January next year, it’s wise to approach the market cautiously and avoid wild bets. There are still lagging opportunities in other sectors. For example, Cardano (ADA) recently posted #38% gains in two weeks, highlighting alternative investments that are catching up to the current crypto bull run.

Bitcoin Analysis: Bearish Outlook and Short-Term Targets
Position Details:
Current Sell Entry: #97k
Target: #90k
Market Structure Overview:
The price action is respecting a rising wedge pattern, which is generally a bearish continuation pattern. The breakdown seen near the current price (~#94k) aligns with your bearish outlook.

Bearish Confirmation:

RSI: The RSI has fallen below neutral (currently #34.06), signaling weakening momentum.
MACD: The MACD histogram shows growing bearish momentum (red bars) alongside a bearish crossover.
Volume Flow Index (VFI):
The VFI at #20 suggests moderate capital flow into the market, but not sufficient to sustain bullish trends.

Short-Term Target: #90k
The primary target remains #90k, supported by:

The wedge breakdown projection aligning with this level.
Historical support zones evident on the chart.
December Scenario: Potential Retest or Breakout
Heading into December, two possible scenarios are likely:

Scenario A: Retest as a Double Top

A rebound could take the price back to #97k or higher, potentially forming a double top. Rejection here would confirm continued bearish pressure.
Scenario B: Breakout to #100k-#102k

If bullish momentum unexpectedly revives, a breakout to #100k-#102k could occur. However, this would likely represent a false breakout, followed by a deeper decline.
Technical Outlook:
Key Resistance Levels:

#96k (current zone of interest).
#100k-#102k (psychological resistance and possible retest zone).
Key Support Levels:

#90k (primary target).
#85k (potential deeper breakdown area).

Conclusion:
The current analysis reinforces a bearish short-term outlook, with a sell position targeting #90k. December may bring increased volatility with a possible retest at #97k or a breakout to #100k-#102k before the downward trend resumes. This cautious approach is underscored by macro factors such as profit-taking from long-term holders and alternative opportunities, like Cardano’s recent #38% gains, still lagging the broader crypto bull run. Stay vigilant with key levels and monitor confirmation signals from RSI and MACD.