🔥 Bitcoin: The Best Next Cycle's Top Forecast 🎯

2023년 11월 15일

Foreword
In this analysis I want to make an attempt at forecasting both the date and the price range at which Bitcoin will top at in the coming bull-cycle. The forecast is 100% based on historical data and is based on math and not on feelings, so be prepared to see some numbers and formulas.

This analysis is speculative in nature because we're forecasting the price of an asset around 2 years into the future. So take it with a grain of salt.

Halvings
The yellow dotted lines are past and future halving dates. For the last two halvings, Bitcoin has topped (green) between 74 - 78 weeks after the halving. The next halving is scheduled around 22 April 2024.

Bottoms
The red dotted lines are past bear-market bottoms. For the last two cycles Bitcoin topped 151 and 152 weeks after the bear-market bottom.

Monthly RSI
Based on this analysis BTC will top between 47-49 months after the top. In short: between September and November 2025.

Forecasting the DATE
Applying the logic of the two historical analyses above, we can make the assumption that BTC will top around 152 weeks after the market bottom. Assuming that the bottom is in, this brings us to early November 2025. This would be 79 weeks after the 2024 halving. Looking at the time between the halving to the top, this ranges from 74-78 weeks. All of the above is in line with my Monthly RSI analysis.

Combining everything above, we can forecast that Bitcoin will top between late September and early November 2025.

Log Price Bands
In order to calculate the price we make use of my Logarithmic Price Bands Indicator. I've removed the bottom two bands since we're only interested in the top band, which forecasts the top. The top band is based on a complicated exponential formula that gives a certain Price (Y) for a certain time (X).

See this indicator for more info.

Forecasting the PRICE
By filling in the dates of late September 2025 and early November 2025 into the Log Bands formula, we get a lower and an upper band of the price. This price ranges from 171k - 250k.

This is the best forecast that historical price action can give you, although we had to make the assumption that the coming cycle will follow a similar path as the previous two, which is not far-fetched since the asset has matured more.

Conclusion
Date: late September - early November 2025
Price: 170.000 - 251.000

The macro environment has changed a lot over the last two years, so I'd be happily surprised if this forecast turned out to be true. Personally I'm more conservative than this analysis suggests because of interest / inflation / recession.

Still, this analysis is 100% based on historical facts and the best factually correct forecast I can give at a next cycle's top.

Please share your thoughts on this analysis. Also interested to hear your predictions! 🙏