Yesterday we went back to the drawing board after the trailing stop losses were triggered on my ETH:USD and BTC:USD shorts. I am 99% certain that we are yet to find a bottom, therefore I am preparing for the next bearish entry.
If you missed yesterday’s post I would recommend giving it a read. I outlined major areas of resistance and it should give you a good idea about how to start the process of finding a trade.
Today is Sunday and it is the first of the month, so this post will be about analyzing the longer term time frames. The current rally found resistance at $6,500 and is retesting $6,250 support. The long wick which pushed the price from $6,500 down to $6,400 is a bad sign for the bulls. It tells me that the FOMO buyers were easily thwarted by the bears at that level.
The weekly candle is going to close in a few hours. If the price holds above $5,823 then we would get a nice tweezer bottom. I would expect that to provide the support needed for the bulls to breakthrough the trendline (red). From there a bounce to $7,275 would be likely.
The well defined support and resistance areas combined with the downtrend line is why I would be expecting a bounce to $7,275. If that does happen then I would be viewing it as a high probably short sell.
The Stochastic on weekly chart also had it’s first crossover below 11 since 1-12-15. That effectively marked the bottom of the last bear market prior to the year of consolidation.
This indicator made me reconsider my confidence level in regards to the market finding a bottom. If the Stochastic is marking the bottom like it did in 2015 then we still have a long time to consolidate. If we range between $5,823 and $7,275 over the next 3+ months then I will start calling for the bottom.
Until we see some serious capitulation and/or months of ranging in a tight zone then I will remain confidently bearish.
Based on the likelihood of a tweezer bottom and the recent cross on the Stochastic I am expecting a strong bounce from here. However, I am not nearly confident enough in that projection to bet against the trend. Therefore I will be waiting to sell the bounce on BTC and alts. If you are not currently in a position I would recommend doing the same.
Thank you for your time! Have something to add? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
If you missed yesterday’s post I would recommend giving it a read. I outlined major areas of resistance and it should give you a good idea about how to start the process of finding a trade.
Today is Sunday and it is the first of the month, so this post will be about analyzing the longer term time frames. The current rally found resistance at $6,500 and is retesting $6,250 support. The long wick which pushed the price from $6,500 down to $6,400 is a bad sign for the bulls. It tells me that the FOMO buyers were easily thwarted by the bears at that level.
The weekly candle is going to close in a few hours. If the price holds above $5,823 then we would get a nice tweezer bottom. I would expect that to provide the support needed for the bulls to breakthrough the trendline (red). From there a bounce to $7,275 would be likely.
The well defined support and resistance areas combined with the downtrend line is why I would be expecting a bounce to $7,275. If that does happen then I would be viewing it as a high probably short sell.
The Stochastic on weekly chart also had it’s first crossover below 11 since 1-12-15. That effectively marked the bottom of the last bear market prior to the year of consolidation.
This indicator made me reconsider my confidence level in regards to the market finding a bottom. If the Stochastic is marking the bottom like it did in 2015 then we still have a long time to consolidate. If we range between $5,823 and $7,275 over the next 3+ months then I will start calling for the bottom.
Until we see some serious capitulation and/or months of ranging in a tight zone then I will remain confidently bearish.
Based on the likelihood of a tweezer bottom and the recent cross on the Stochastic I am expecting a strong bounce from here. However, I am not nearly confident enough in that projection to bet against the trend. Therefore I will be waiting to sell the bounce on BTC and alts. If you are not currently in a position I would recommend doing the same.
Thank you for your time! Have something to add? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
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